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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (124636)	2/12/2004 9:33:56 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Personally, I find it risible that we are to believe that someone like Zarqawi is painted to be thinks that it will be impossible to continue attacks on an Iraqi govt elected under the auspices of the US, especially with the complicated and rigged caucus plan that is currently being pushed by Bremer et al. The bottom line is that (a) many Iraqis fundamentally mistrust and even hate the US; and (b) different factions in Iraq mistrust and even hate each other for all sorts of reasons. Those are two of the basic reasons why this invasion was so ill-advised. Perhaps it would have been a better idea if we weren't already essentially there, if we hadn't had Saddam already caged and boxed in, with inspectors on the ground and our satellites and planes in the air. But that wasn't the case. I am not persuaded by your argument that this state of affairs was about to crumble. Even if sanctions were lifted, no one was going to support just allowing Saddam a free hand with no restraints or overseer. My speculation on the memo is that it is trying to use a favorite old trick of US policy: it is trying to invent a different enemy for Iraqis to hate besides the US and each other, i.e., Al Qaeda and other foreigners. "They" are trying to start a civil war, not the US. "They" are making Iraqi lives miserable. The US is trying to mend matters. Once "democracy" takes hold, everything will be better, if Iraqis can just unite and defeat these foreigners who are here only to disrupt matters. It is a pep talk both for Iraqis and for audiences here in the US. And, as others have pointed out, since when does the US leak messages to Al Qaeda that might not have been otherwise delivered? There may really have been a message on a hard drive that was found, but personally, I doubt that it said what this message said. I think it was doctored at best, or totally made up. I don't see much evidence that the US position is getting stronger. Sure, attacks dropped after Saddam was captured. But they are on the rise again. The question is, are these attacks by foreigners like Zarqawi, as this memo and, I believe, people in the US high command want to believe, or are they attacks by Iraqis who are adjusting to the new post-Saddam situation? Is that 5,000 fighter number that the US military (Ricardo, I think it was) threw around a few months ago real, or is it a guess and a hope? By now, with all the arrests and killing that has occurred over the past few months, if the 5,000 number was real, it ought to be down to about 2,000 or even less. I can't claim to have a definitive answer to that question; it will only be answered in the ripeness of time. If Ricardo is right, this increase in attacks really is a blip; if he is not right, the increase will continue for the foreseeable future.