For Edwards and Dean, Winning May Not Be All
By ADAM NAGOURNEY - NYT
NASHVILLE, Feb. 10 — Even as Senator John Kerry won two more states on Tuesday in a show of force that has put him on the lip of seizing the Democratic presidential nomination, Senator John Edwards and Howard Dean vowed that they would soldier on into Wisconsin and into a heavy run of contests in March.
That left more than a few Democrats asking the same question on Tuesday night in this rapidly deflating contest: what precisely are Mr. Edwards and Dr. Dean trying to do?
The answer is that for Mr. Edwards, of North Carolina, and Dr. Dean, the former Vermont governor, the decision to hang on is a calculation that does not necessarily have to do with becoming their party's nominee for president.
They are looking to the lessons of Jerry Brown in 1992 and the Rev. Jesse Jackson in 1988, two other Democratic presidential contenders who stayed at the party long after the lights had come up, trying to enhance their national stature in a race that for all purposes appears to be over. (A third candidate, Gen. Wesley K. Clark, posted another weak showing on Tuesday night, and pulled out of the race.
Given that fewer than a quarter of the delegates have been chosen, Mr. Edwards and Dr. Dean have presumably not given up hope that they could still capture the prize that they have energetically sought for more than a year. Each is trying to emerge as the alternative to Mr. Kerry, of Massachusetts, in the hope that voters would be seized by what General Clark told reporters on Tuesday would be a bout of "buyer's remorse" about Mr. Kerry.
"It will be a very good head-to-head race between Senator Kerry and myself," Mr. Edwards said on CNN from Wisconsin, where the next primary will be held. "It's clear that this race is going into March."
Dr. Dean expressed similar sentiments in an interview from Wisconsin, where his campaign manager said he was throwing "the kitchen sink" into trying to win his first state.
But no matter how they perform in the next contests, these Democrats are looking beyond a race that even their aides acknowledge is close to being settled. They are positioning themselves to achieve a degree of influence at their party's convention in Boston and in the writing of the party's platform. And Mr. Edwards, several Democrats said, may well have an eye on the vice presidential slot in November. He may also realize that any spadework he does now could help him if he runs for the presidency again in 2008.
"The only reason for them to stay in is to raise their profiles for up the road," said Jim Jordan, who was campaign manager for Mr. Kerry before being forced out last year. "The voters have spoken. This thing is over."
And for those who have enjoyed the glamour of being a presidential candidate — the big entourages, the television interviews, the cheering crowds — the longer they stay in the race, the longer they can raise money, and thus stay in the race. They need money to finance the airplanes, television advertisements, and campaign headquarters needed to maintain at least the semblance of a campaign. At the very least, no candidate wants to close up his campaign and have to worry about somehow paying off huge debts.
The potential gains for Mr. Edwards, a first-term senator, are particularly clear. The more he raises his profile, particularly with a campaign that has been widely praised by Democrats, the more attractive he might look to Mr. Kerry as a running mate. (It does not hurt that Mr. Edwards has studiously avoided criticizing his fellow senator.) That is a job that Mr. Edwards might be understandably inclined to accept because, in order to run for president, he has given up his seat in the Senate.
Beyond that, if Mr. Edwards pushes through to March 2, he will be competing in primaries and participating in debates in California and New York, two states where he is not particularly well known. That would be beneficial for Mr. Edwards, as his own aides said, for a future run for the presidency.
It might seem that Mr. Kerry would prefer Mr. Edwards to move aside so Mr. Kerry can turn all his attention to President Bush. But in truth, Democrats said, Mr. Edwards's continued presence could benefit Mr. Kerry, dividing any anti-Kerry vote with Dr. Dean and diminishing the chances of Mr. Kerry suffering a last-minute embarrassment in Wisconsin.
That is particularly the case if Mr. Edwards continues to disregard his pledge of about a week ago to highlight differences between himself and Mr. Kerry. His placid and unconfrontational campaign style is one reason why Democrats suggested Tuesday that his thoughts may be moving beyond winning the presidential nomination this year.
Mr. Edwards's aides are hoping that Dr. Dean will carry the burden for them of attacking Mr. Kerry. And, Dr. Dean, unlike Mr. Edwards, did not appear to be pulling back his attacks on Mr. Kerry on Tuesday, criticizing him for taking contributions from "special interests." But several Democrats said that Dr. Dean did not have the platform or the credibility he once did, after going 14 contests without a victory, and his attacks may prove to be largely unheard.
The trick for Mr. Edwards and Dr. Dean in the week ahead is to figure out a way to be taken seriously and not become the subject of ridicule as a candidate unable to let go of a losing cause.
Perhaps even more of a risk, in a year when Democrats seem so hungry to defeat Mr. Bush, is that no one is looking to be remembered as the Democrat who tore down Mr. Kerry and thus destroyed the Democrats' hope for a victory. That may be go down as yet another lucky break for Mr. Kerry this year.
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company |
