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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (7818)	2/12/2004 8:48:45 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Probing Greenspan's Easy-Money Madness Alan Greenspan's most successful ruse has to been to make his speeches so dull that they mask the monumental gamble he is taking with the U.S. economy. But the Fed chairman's testimony before Congress on Wednesday clearly indicates that he believes he has won that gamble. But one line in Greenspan's testimony Wednesday shows that he is unfazed by the soaring debt levels of the U.S. He said: "All told, our accommodative monetary policy stance to date does not seem to have generated excessive volumes of liquidity or credit." Greenspan was pushed to provide actual numbers to support his case. In fact, he couldn't talk about debt in the economy without mentioning some pretty hairy numbers. "Home mortgage debt increased about 13% last year," he noted. "The growth of nonfederal debt, at 7.75%, was relatively brisk in 2003," Greenspan added. So where was the good news on the debt front? Well, Greenspan is encouraged that "the low level of interest rates and large volumes of mortgage refinancing activity helped reduce households' debt service and financial-obligation ratios a bit." He must be referring to the Fed yardstick that measures households' payments on financial obligations as a percentage of disposable income. Yes, it came down "a bit" in 2003 -- to 18.09% in the third quarter of last year, from 2002's high point of 18.29%. But above 18%, it is still at historically high levels. Greenspan also defended the massive increase in household debt last year by arguing that "the rise in home and equity prices enabled the ratio of household net worth to disposable income to recover to a little above its long-term average." You realize what the head of the nation's monetary system and the most powerful actor in the global economy is doing here? After five years of volatile stock markets, he's asking us to rely on equity prices. As for house prices, they could fall steeply as the credit binge slows down. In fact, Greenspan concedes that the buoyant housing market and boom in mortgage refinancing "are not expected to continue at their recent pace." But, of course, the central banker does not predict what will happen to house prices when that pace slows right down. Greenspan has never accepted the blame for creating the boom that led inevitably to the bust. The Fed's Monetary Policy Report to Congress, which also came out Wednesday and accompanies Greenspan's testimony, refers to "a glut in long-haul fiber-optic" that had built up earlier. But how did the glut ever get there in the first place? Easy money, of course. Greenspan's policies haven't done anything to increase the nation's pitiful saving rate. In fact, his low interest rates have played a big role in keeping the nation's personal saving rate at around 2%. In the Monetary Policy Report, the Fed appears almost surprised by this. The central bank notes that households did not save more as their wealth fell during the stock market slump. Why might this be? Well, the Fed thinks the answer may be that households wanted to "take advantage of the attractive pricing and financing environment for consumer goods." thestreet.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (7818)	2/12/2004 8:54:08 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

German Economy Grew Less Than Expected 0.2% in Fourth Quarter Germany's economy, Europe's largest, grew less than expected last quarter from the previous three-month period as imports rose more than exports following the euro's appreciation. German gross domestic product expanded 0.2 percent, the same rate as in the third quarter, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists expected an increase of 0.3 percent, according to the median of 34 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Germany's economy, Europe's biggest, contracted 0.1 percent in 2003 as consumer spending dropped, the statistics office said last month. The government predicts growth of 1.5 percent to 2 percent this year. `Exports alone cannot solve the economic problems in Germany,'' said Gunter Schall, economist at the BDI industry association, whose 107,000 members include DaimlerChrysler AG and Siemens AG. ``The question is will companies use their income from exports to invest in Germany? I am skeptical about that.'' Household spending, which accounts for more than half of German GDP, is still a drag on the economy. German retail sales fell for a second month in December, and unemployment rose a seasonally adjusted 28,000 in January, the first increase since May. European consumer confidence stagnated last month. The ECB has ignored calls by business leaders including BDI head Michael Rogowski to lower interest rates to stem the euro's climb. The euro rose to $1.2899 last month, the highest since its introduction five years ago, and was trading at $1.2831 at 7:49 a.m. in Frankfurt. Policy makers last Thursday left the main lending rate unchanged at a half-century low of 2 percent and board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell told business journalists Tuesday a rate cut ``is currently not a topic.'' ECB officials next meet to set interest rates on March 4. Investors increasingly expects borrowing costs to remain unchanged until at least the middle of the year, interest rate futures contracts show. quote.bloomberg.com =============================================== What is BDI? Mish