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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fastmetals who wrote (7632)	2/12/2004 8:35:05 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108766

fastmetals, First just want to note to the thread that I'm taking a market vacation, I've got some projects to finish and then need a bit of R & R. Last week I began to move into a much higher cash position than usual, though I am still holding some core positions in NG and PM's, they are very small compared to normal. As a reflection of my market views, I usually try and take breaks when I feel that high cash positions are warranted. OTOH, I'm not traveling any great distances, so I can change my mind if incorrect on those views, which is always a possibility, ggg. Anyway, my posting will be reduced for a week to a few weeks. fastmetals, I've also noticed that the price of imported goods has not increased at the same rate that the currency increases of the countries of origin would suggest. Just a couple weeks ago, I was looking for two imported items and there were none available in the US. The item is in demand, but I was looking for a particular type, which is not in as much demand, but is also "scarce". A distributor checked with a large importer who found the two items, the last two of the last production run, in inventory at the factory in Europe. Last week I received both and still received a substantial discount from list or even market price, despite what would be considered a custom order, air freight, etc. This was remarkable in several aspects. I don't believe this could have been done five years ago for a single consumer and a small distributor. The globalization aspect is quite obvious. Several decades ago, I ordered a similar item, very similar circumstances, but of US manufacture. I waited a year for delivery and had to pay a 30% premium over list price in the 70's. Conclusions from this small anecdote: 1 This is a buyers market, much better for consumers 2 Not a sellers market, squeeze on profit margins for manufacturers 3 Full employment must be a motivation along with Capacity Utilization, example Toyota during other high yen times 4 Market share a consideration over profit, same example 5 Improved manufacture, CNC machining, improved computers "High Speed Machining" have increased quantity of consumer goods. Other technology inputs also. 6 In 70's, consumers were more willing than factories were able 7 Now factories more willing than consumers are able 8 #5 may have reduced c.#7, more output less high wage workers in proportion to population. 9 An adjustment of relationship of #1 and #2 would seem inevitable. I extrapolated the anecdote of the "two items", as it seems to apply generally to most consumer goods I observe in the markets today. PS Other conclusions/views are welcome, this is all I had time for. fastmetals, glad you explained the true meaning of your handle, here I was guessing you were a daytrader of metals, vbg. All the best, Roebear

To: fastmetals who wrote (7632)	2/12/2004 8:44:59 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 108766

Dollar index - Double Bottom? - In addition to the other arguments on the Dollar index, if it is a double bottom it's not a very good one. The uptick between the bottom peaks was a mere 3 pts. Also the peaks were relatively close together time wise...which isn't always a bad thing. But given the duration of this bear market in the dollar strictly look at the chart I'd call it very weak. It may be enough to produce a small bounce back to 86 or 87, but even that is questionable.

To: fastmetals who wrote (7632)	2/12/2004 10:23:10 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 108766

Greenspan welcomes weak dollar (Financial Times) by Jennifer Hughes Published: February 11 2004 news.ft.com The euro came within a cent of its lifetime highs against the dollar on Wednesday after Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, signalled his ease with the US currency's decline. The euro, having traded steadily around $1.268 ahead of Mr Greenspan's speech, jumped to $1.2836 as Mr Greenspan was questioned by members of Congress as part of his half-yearly testimony. On currencies, Mr Greenspan noted the weaker dollar would help to narrow the US current account deficit. Currency traders took the remarks as a sign of tacit Fed acceptance of the dollar's slide. "Its unusual for him to say anything on currencies," noted Tony Norfield, head of currency strategy at ABN Amro. "In the good old days, he talked about the current account deficit not being a problem because of foreigners' demand for US assets, so he's definitely changed his tune." Mr Greenspan also noted the decline in the dollar had been gradual and had had no adverse effects on US capital markets. The remarks were particularly potent after a warning by the G7 at the weekend about "disorderly movements" in exchange rates being undesirable. This had in part been read as a sign of possible intervention should currency volatility begin affecting other markets. Nick Parsons, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank, said: "289 words on the dollar and not one of them said 'buy'". Mr Greenspan's generally dovish tone further undermined the dollar, and it dropped to a new three-year low against the yen at Y105.18 before quickly bouncing back to Y105.3. An upbeat inflation report from the Bank of England and strong labour market data helped sterling higher against both the euro and the dollar. Unemployment fell again to new record lows and any impact of a slower-than-expected rise in wage inflation was soon negated by the bank's report. Mervyn King, the bank's governor, forecast a strong pick-up in growth and highlighted expectations that inflation, currently 1.3 per cent, would rise to its target 2 per cent in two year's time. By referring to market expectations of higher rates, he bolstered economists' forecasts of further interest rate rises. "Given the MPC's focus on the build up of future inflationary pressures, these forecasts are consistent with the market's current expectation of a gradual rise in interest rates," said John Butler, economist at HSBC, who forecast the next rate rise would be in May. Kamal Sharma, strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said that UK officials' lack of concern about currency strength contrasted with eurozone fears and could also help the pound higher. Sterling, aided by the dollar's weakness in London afternoon trade, jumped to $1.8856, a new 11-year high. The euro slipped to a low of £0.677 - its weakest since late March last year.