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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (7849)	2/12/2004 1:20:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Bill Bonner, back in London... "With a record number of Philadelphia homeowners unable to pay their mortgages," begins a report from the City of Brotherly Love, "city officials, the sheriff and advocacy groups are trying to convince a judge to suspend the city's foreclosure auctions." "This is the worst time for foreclosures basically since the Great Depression," said John Dodds, director of the Philadelphia Unemployment Project, the group leading the moratorium drive. "You can't keep letting hundreds and hundreds of people lose their home every week. "Philadelphia Sheriff John Green said he would participate in a lawsuit to suspend the auctions, which this week saw a record 1,120 homes up for bid."

To: russwinter who wrote (7849)	2/12/2004 1:21:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

JNPR *** And here, colleague Porter Stansberry with more madness in the Nasdaq: "Out of the eight public corporations in the world whose market capitalization exceeds $10 billion and whose shares trade at more than 15 times earnings, Juniper Networks has the absolute worst gross margins. "The others are all around 90%. But Juniper sells big, hard-to-make routers. It is, then, mostly a manufacturing company. And its gross margins are comparatively normal: 69%. "Like most revered high-tech stocks, Juniper's business doesn't appear to benefit shareholders in any way. On a cumulative basis, the company's efforts since its founding in 1998 add up to a loss of $13 million dollars. Of course, this GAAP accounting doesn't include Juniper's biggest expense: stock options. Juniper's management thoughtfully passes this cost along to shareholders directly. "This, of course, is de rigueur for tech companies. But Juniper's board of directors threw gas onto the fire by agreeing to re-price all of the outstanding employee stock options, near the bottom of the market in tech shares. Today Juniper has 75 million stock options outstanding with an average strike price of $10.71. With the stock doing so well lately, these outstanding, off-balance sheet obligations provide investors with a fascinating quandary. "At current share prices, Juniper's employees' options have an intrinsic value of $1.296 billion dollars. Meanwhile, Juniper's total shareholder equity only equals $1.5 billion. Thus, at current prices, Juniper's outstanding option grants to its employees are worth ~ 80% of its equity. "The more bullish investors bid up the price of this stock, the smaller their own claims to the company's equity becomes. This is the only time I can recall seeing a stock actually become worth less, the more someone offered to pay for it. I'm not quite sure what to make of it... "Juniper's managers, however, are not so curious. They seem quite able to chart a proper course of action: they're selling - like there is no tomorrow. So far this year (2004) Juniper's CEO has dumped 500,000 shares, worth more than $14 million dollars. The company's CFO isn't far behind: he's dumped about $6 million worth of stock. "Like lab monkeys on cocaine, these guys see no reason to stop hitting the feeder bar. If shareholders are going to reward them for diluting their stock and dumping new shares on the market, why stop with giving stock to Juniper's employees?"

To: russwinter who wrote (7849)	2/12/2004 8:57:08 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<Keep a very close eye on petroleum too. Markets are far, far to complacent. We are one serious geopolitical event away from a real train wreck there as well. Saudi Arabia, or increasingly likely Venezuela again. Message 19797597; Here we go, showtime. Reuters UPDATE - Chavez foes, backers clash as poll ruling delayed Thursday February 12, 8:46 pm ET By Pascal Fletcher CARACAS, Venezuela, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Opponents and supporters of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez fought in the streets in two cities on Thursday as electoral authorities postponed a decision on whether the leftist leader should face a referendum on his rule. Opposition and government supporters clashed in Valencia, Carabobo state, 100 miles (160 km) west of Caracas. Local television showed them exchanging punches and kicks and hitting each other with sticks. In Barcelona in eastern Venezuela, foes and backers of the populist president fought with stones, bottles and sticks outside local electoral offices, TV reporters said. No details of injuries were immediately available. Earlier, opposition students in the western Andean city of Merida clashed with riot police who fired tear gas and plastic bullets. Television reports said there were several arrests and injuries. The violence broke out as National Electoral Council officials admitted they could not meet a Feb. 13 deadline to announce the long-awaited ruling on a possible referendum against Chavez this year. Furious opposition leaders accused some electoral officials of siding with the president and of deliberately delaying the verification of an opposition referendum petition. Former paratrooper Chavez was elected in 1998 and his foes accuse him of trying to install Cuba-style communism in Venezuela. The clashes also stoked fears that further delays in the referendum process could lead to fresh political turmoil in the world's No. 5 oil exporter, which was rocked by a brief coup and violent protests and strikes over the last two years. Electoral authorities said they would try to establish and announce by the end of February whether or not the opposition had handed in enough valid signatures late last year to trigger a recall vote before August. "We hope to have the results in February," Jorge Rodriguez, a senior electoral council official, said. Opposition leaders have called a march on Saturday to the electoral council's headquarters in downtown Caracas to press for a speedy decision. "The peace of this country lies in the council's decision," said Albis Munoz, president of the anti-Chavez business federation Fedecamaras. Fearing possible violence, the United States and Britain warned their citizens in Venezuela to stay away from downtown Caracas on the weekend. Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel warned the opposition that the government would not tolerate any disorder. Opposition leaders say they delivered 3.4 million pro-vote signatures to the electoral authorities in December, well above the 2.4 million legally required. Chavez and his supporters say the signatures are riddled with fraud. But the populist president says he will accept whatever decision the National Electoral Council takes.