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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (7860)	2/12/2004 2:24:35 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

you are confusing capacity at the primary stage with later stages of production. There is much slack in capacity that is NOT obsolete closer to the consumer-- the problem is flagging demand closer to the consumer and prior "bad" extrapolation concerning growth in demand for consumer goods -- overshoot -- Heinz IS right. But if you would think about it for a minute you would know that this is the result to be expected from loose money. Overinvestment in the latter stages and underinvestment in the primary input stages ...

To: russwinter who wrote (7860)	2/12/2004 2:38:53 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

heck, I guess the auto plants they are idling in our state are "obsolete" -- nice catch-all phrase, that.

To: russwinter who wrote (7860)	2/12/2004 2:43:42 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu Feb 12 2004 14:38 trotsky (kapex@inflation) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved rising prices are a SYMPTOM of inflation - they are not, per se, inflation. prices often rise for reasons not connected to inflation - like e.g. unexpected supply disruptions, or simply entrepreneurial mistakes in gauging future supply/demand balances. the correct definition of inflation is a rise in the money supply. when the money supply falls, that's called deflation. falling prices, the symptom of deflation, come later - it takes time for the effects of changes in the money supply to filter through to the economy at large. furthermore, you seem to be referring to aggregate prices. if so, you must not only consider those goods the prices of which have been rising lately, but also those that have exhibited falling prices. there is e.g. not a single electronics good the price of which has not plunged dramatically. apparel prices are coming down continuously, as are the prices of telecommunications and travel. likewise, the price of labor has been falling, as evidence by negative wage growth over the past 3 years. the price of money has come down a lot as well ( i.e., interest rates ) . so the assertion that all prices are rising is wrong in any case, even if one doesn't consider the correct interpretation of inflation. Date: Thu Feb 12 2004 14:21 trotsky (morbius, 12:54) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved regarding helicoper money - perhaps. but i actually think that's highly unlikely, because the central banks will be reluctant to print themselves out of a job. i also suspect that by the time it may actually become a point of consideration, the worries and priorities won't concern those unkeepable government promises anymore. i for one ( please don't tell anybody ) don't think our current social order will survive the coming upheavals.

To: russwinter who wrote (7860)	2/12/2004 2:51:01 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The U.S. Treasury reported that the federal budget posted a $1.4 billion deficit in January, somewhat weaker than the consensus forecast for a slight surplus. January typically shows a surplus because of heavy estimated tax payments. Indeed, individual income tax receipts were down 8.2 percent in January versus a year ago. At the same time, the level of corporate income tax receipts were three times as large as a year ago. However, corporate income taxes are minuscule relative to individual taxes and thus were not able to offset the sharp drop. On a year-to-date basis, individual income taxes are 2.6 percent lower than for the same four month period a year ago; corporate income taxes are 39.1 percent higher than for the same four month period a year ago. On the outlays side, defense expenditures are up 15.9 percent versus last year (for the four months of the fiscal year). Medicare outlays are 2.2 percent higher than last year for the four month period, while social security outlays are 3.7 percent higher than a year ago. A low interest rate environment continues to help the Treasury as net interest costs are down 4.3 percent from the same four month period a year ago. All in all, the fiscal year-to-date is showing a deficit of $130 billion compared with a $97.6 billion deficit for the same period a year ago. This should be negative for interest rates, but as long as foreigners continue to purchase our securities, rate increases will be curtailed.