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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: gold$10k who wrote (7703)2/13/2004 1:11:34 AM
From: isopatch  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 108759
 
vt. Good post. And, we all know there are no guarantees.

That disclaimer aside, Contrary Opinion is one of my fav
indicators.

Every time we're facing a top in a sector? The vast majority of traders are more bullish and complacent about downside risk than usual, the cheerleading gets louder than usual, and you see a more stuborn determination to stay fully invested. Despite the more emotional nature of how opinions are held and expressed, there's a high level of denial that this is the case. And self deception in that regard is often supported via an over reliance on the more subjective types of analysis.

Not talking about LT buy and hold folks. And, I'm NOT picking on anyone, in particular, on other threads. Let's fact it. Even a significant ST tops (that only last a week or two) there are so many bagholders it's impossible to count them.

Well, that's enuf for one night. Cya tomorrow.

Iso



To: gold$10k who wrote (7703)2/13/2004 8:02:36 AM
From: Roebear  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 108759
 
vt,
A rising POG and falling XAU/HUI such as we saw today is one of the most reliable indicators of a reversal that I have seen in my 5 years of closely watching the gold sector.

I agree that this (and its reverse) have been among the most reliable indicators for gold stocks.

That said, we must always be aware that all indicators eventually become less useful as their efficacy becomes more apparent to more market players.

Best,
Roebear