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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (8885)	2/13/2004 10:32:52 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Kirk, I disagree with your premise that more companies will want to have their own fabs....it isn't cost effective. Building, managing, and supporting a fab is a very expensive proposition and requires very deep pockets. Specialty chip manufacturers cannot afford the expense, especially due to the cyclical and competitive nature of chip development. Only very large companies with other revenue streams and multiple product lines can support owning a fab. Not many companies have enough income growth to support multi-$B fab costs. BB

To: Kirk © who wrote (8885)	2/13/2004 12:26:43 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

A lot of what you say would make sense if CEOs of chip and equipment companies were as stupid and useless as the analysts that they must put up with. Fortunately, they are not. They know that they are not in a zero sum game. Quite the opposite. There is tremendous opportunity for profit by equipment makers, fabs, and IP holders. ALTR and XLNX are providing the innovation that drives end user products which drive the whole industry. There will not be a huge capacity shortage. Things will be tight, tighter than has ocurred during the bubble aftermath, but equipment orders and fab capacity plans have been moving ahead, albeit, at a deliberate pace. Sensational news requires reporting extremes. Shortages, boom, bust. When I listen to conference calls, I hear about equipment makers and fabless IC makers working closely with fabs to develop technologies and to increase capacity in an orderly fashion. All are very aware of capacity, inventory, and end demand. They are tested, quality managers and they are working hard to manage the situation. I have no caveats about the chip industry and the immediate future other than those that would require me to post OT and talk politics.