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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (8008)2/13/2004 11:17:27 AM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 110194
 
>>There is no way you'll want to be long notes, EDs and bonds during the train wreck that is now unfolding.<<

I think where we differ is the rapidity of the drop off in economic activity -- you have the super-tanker model -- takes while to turn.

I'm more with the Titanic model -- I think the falloff in real economic activity will be abrupt enough that any rise in rates will be so short-lived, IF it happens at all, that it will be able to be ignored.



To: russwinter who wrote (8008)2/13/2004 11:24:13 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Question for Russ:

Do you think (as I do) that AG's goal is much higher US and global inflation? I am not sure if you agree or think that AG is simply making an honest mistake in underestimating the inflationary potential of his policies.



To: russwinter who wrote (8008)2/13/2004 11:48:07 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
There is no way you'll want to be long notes, EDs and bonds during the train wreck that is now unfolding.

There is no way you want to be short them when interest rates are cut to keep this bubble going. Eurodollars off todays highs but Eurodollras, Euribors, and LSS all up today.

I reiterate my call for a rate cut in Europe.
M