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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2088)	2/13/2004 4:18:39 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Respond to of 81568

Isn't Iowa a swing state, must-win for Bush? Swing state, yes, must win, probably not. Gore won Iowa, 48.6% to 48.3%. So Bush won (barely) without it last time, and the states he did win have gained 9 electoral votes due to census reallocation. So I don't think it is a "must win" for him but it is clearly in the group of states that both sides would love to have. According to the BLS, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Iowa in December 2003 was 4.4 percent. I think calling a 4.4 percent unemployment rate a "slow motion crisis" is hyperbole. Reagan won the state twice, the second time when he was an incumbent and the unemployment was much higher (7.1 percent the December before the election and even higher the month of the election). But GWB is not Reagan, and Dems have won Iowa the past four consecutive elections, Gore by the narrowest of margins. I would say if GWB wins Iowa it will be a sign that the Dems are in trouble, but if he loses it he can still win if he holds together most of his other states from 2000.