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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (7772)	2/14/2004 10:37:54 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 108726

thanks, been investing since 1984 ups & downs in the 1980's without much conviction, consistency got hit by Black Monday 1987 holding Apple and DEC I worked at Digital Equip Corp at the time first quality control consulting, then exciting marketing research many tough lessons in mid-1990's dealt with shorterm trading, options, futures it did not go well, therefore much learning I learned for instance that futures is for EXPERTS ONLY a new chapter in second half of 1990 decade worked at Staples HQ, had low-level mgmt stock options did retail forecasting and sales analysis got some good insight on seasonality and other adjustment concepts that the USGovt typically deceives the public with made a small killing after vested with them then came the 1999 explosion did really well with QCOM, as did many others was more successful with options that anyone had right to that was my significant time on SI had a lot of fun, made a lot of friends, developed contacts but I overlooked one of my late autumn 1999 statements "a tough correction comes in spring 2000, when Fed tightens" but the real learning came in 2001, 2002 when the wealth blew away, I had to dig deep intelligence is only part of the battle in stocks investors MUST MUST MUST apply themselves properly if they choose to investigate and research in wrong areas, then disaster awaits them most of the time I came away from hundreds of hours of study with a strong belief stocks are dumb money bonds are smarter money currencys are smartest money gold is brilliant money follow the currencys and work down you figure out the trends in US$, Euro, JYen then figure out the Fed policy and bond trends those two will DICTATE the trends in stocks most investors start with stocks and ignore all above that is usually a fatal mistake most investors give up 40-60% when attempting to trade then they exit for a few years, try again, fail again mutual fund investors were more successful with buy & hold but only for a few years a tough lesson is to realize that most major press issues are laced with vested interest, such as advertisers who CANNOT BE ANGERED try to run a long series in Wall St Journal about the raiding of gold reserves by Rubin's gang, or how intervention by the Fed must be permanent to prevent economic collapse, or discuss in detail the broken business cycle and its consequences to the USDollar, and WSJ runs risk of massive ad support abandonment the internet has changed the world in every respect information, commerce, pricing, outsourcing, competition EVERYTHING adapt or die thanks again the macro picture is not as difficult as people make it out to be it takes some time to figure out all the pieces, parties, players, factors, and forces then it all comes down to flows and resistance to flows for instance, if since 1975 to 2000, the USA has abandoned mfg in almost every respect, then how the FUCH is the US trade gap supposed to narrow when the USDollar comes down 10% or 20% or 30% or 40% or 50% ??? the forces behind abandonment are still there overvalued US$, high wages, high debt loads, high health care costs, high state taxes in fact, the domain where the forces apply are broadening to service sectors !!! it will not, at least not until a massive amount of mfg returns to the USA, plain & simple, open & shut when you figure out the error in that statement, let me know / jim