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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (8127)	2/14/2004 12:30:33 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

CNN is relentless in reporting on the US Economy just saw a quick piece with graphs the story was the trade gap just announced some guy was interviewed, and discussed the graphs graph of service sector balance of payments showed steady decline over the last few years, now in deficit graph of mfg sector balance of payments showed heavy deficits accumulating over the years the man concluded... "if the US Economy is to gain strength, it is clearly not going to come from mfg, and now the protected service sectors is threatened... this presents a danger to our economy and our standard of living" CNN GETS IT, LED BY LOU DOBBS the crack boom story is getting out / jim

To: russwinter who wrote (8127)	2/14/2004 12:32:29 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

The Indian sub-continent has a population growth of around 1.7% (2/31.5 + 1/32) China about 1/3 of that. Median age in India is below 24 v. 32 in China. Think of those facts

To: russwinter who wrote (8127)	2/14/2004 6:17:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

prudentbear.com Commodity Watch: The CRB index added 2%, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity index jumped 4%. Copper prices rose to the highest level in eight years. Copper is already up 16% y-t-d, with 12-month gains surpassing 60%. From Bloomberg (referencing a Morgan Stanley research report): “The world will produce 426,000 tons less (of copper) than it will use this year, forcing manufacturers to dig deeper into inventories…” Zinc reached a three-year high yesterday. Lumber futures surpassed $380 this week. Lumber prices are up 15% so far this year to the highest level since mid-1999. Crude oil futures (March) jumped better than $2 this week to close at $34.56. February 11 – Bloomberg (Jim Coulter): “Oil demand this year is rising faster than expected as a surging Chinese economy begins to spur growth in surrounding nations, the International Energy Agency said. The Paris-based group, which advises 26 nations on energy policy, boosted its estimate of the rise in oil use this year by 220,000 barrels a day to 1.4 million. Consumption will total 79.9 million barrels a day… Oil inventories in the 30 nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are falling, leaving consumers vulnerable, the IEA has said. Stockpiles fell further in December, losing 1.26 million barrels a day, to 2.52 billion.” Junk bond funds suffered their second straight week of $1 billion outflows (from AMG). All the same, junk Issuers included AES $500 million, Solo Cup $325 million, Pantry $250 million, GCI $250 million, BF Saul REIT $250 million, North Atlantic Trading $200 million, Phillips Van-Heusen $150 million, Erico International $140 million, WII Components $120 million, and North Atlantic Holdings $95 million. A Merrill Lynch junk spread index has widened 36 basis points over the past three weeks. on Greenspan: To make matters more interesting, this (specious) testimony follows on the heels of a G7 meeting where there was clearly no meeting of the minds on how to deal with U.S. imbalances. In addition, it is also worth keeping in mind that it follows by only two weeks the dropping of “considerable period.” Our Fed chairman had an opportunity to send a clear signal to the markets and our global partners that the Federal Reserve had commenced a move toward a less excess-inducing policy stance, but did nothing of the sort. Indeed, it was almost as if he was gesturing to the marketplace that it had over-reacted to the removal of “considerable period.” I found myself scratching my head, contemplating the possibility that our faltering currency and the unfolding global Credit/speculative boom are more than agreeable to our radical central bank.

To: russwinter who wrote (8127)	2/15/2004 12:36:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Russ others - Please join me here if interested in global economic trends, interest rates currencies, etc. no politics, individual stocks, or anything else not listed in the board header please I intend to keep posting here as well but I want to pick up on international stuff not generally discussed here such as interest rates fundamentals in Europe, the UK, Australia, and more analysis of foreign bonds, foreign funds, etc and stuff like Euro vs the BP, chart technical analysis of currencies etc that is not done here. Message 19809820