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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13348)	2/14/2004 6:52:34 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95761

It occurred to me to also do one more sort by next year's PE with Agilent in the table - this does away with the issue of assigning growth rates to each stock. - 01/16/04 2/13/04 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG KLIC 15.20 14.29 -6 1.42 10 18 0.58 WFR 11.00 9.92 -10 0.82 12 10 1.27 MTSN 14.26 12.10 -15 1.00 12 20 0.61 SMTL 12.52 13.10 5 0.94 14 15 0.93 CMOS 15.96 12.75 -20 0.80 16 15 1.06 BRKS 25.95 22.00 -15 1.35 16 14 1.16 COHU 22.22 20.26 -9 1.20 17 CYMI 49.30 42.03 -15 2.40 18 26 0.69 TER* 30.30 25.82 -15 1.44 18 15 1.20 PLAB 20.87 19.63 -6 1.07 18 18 1.05 LTXX 19.12 16.80 -12 0.91 18 18 1.05 LRCX 34.24 27.43 -20 1.41 19 20 0.97 UTEK 32.99 25.55 -23 1.30 20 30 0.66 ASML 21.76 19.52 -10 0.99 20 14 1.46 HELX 24.93 25.82 4 1.27 20 15 1.36 FSII 7.92 8.47 7 0.41 21 20 1.03 NVLS* 42.44 33.26 -22 1.56 21 20 1.09 VECO 32.83 32.00 -3 1.45 22 18 1.26 AMAT* 24.41 21.77 -11 0.96 23 20 1.13 KLAC* 62.10 54.34 -12 2.38 23 20 1.13 PHTN 43.91 35.36 -19 1.53 23 25 0.92 ATMI 28.37 28.02 -1 1.21 23 18 1.29 A 34.25 37.08 8 1.51 25 10 2.46 ASYT 18.59 10.91 -41 0.30 36 20 1.82 EGLS 5.60 5.94 6 -0.30 22 DPMI 23.90 22.30 -7 -0.08 25 TOTALS 659.74 582.18 -12 27.83 SOX-X 557.15 510.57 -8 COMPQX2140.46 2053.56 -4 * STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13348)	2/14/2004 8:30:50 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95761

Don, you finally broke down and included A? Why not leave it in the mix and then maybe Kirk will send a thank you at warp speed! Seriously, thanks so much for the tables. I have been looking over a lot of information and charts today. Amateur Investor is fearful of a potential double top for the dow which I believe is supported by other chart evidence I have noted that may be worth investigating. My main concern is the recent high in the DJIA that was not confirmed by a new high in the transports. Don't get me wrong because I am still thinking buy the dips but it's been six weeks since we had even one day where the total put to call ratio over 1.0. Translation: A lot of bullishness is built into earnings expectations and the next big move is now 50/50 up or down. I will be happy to supply charts and further details on these thoughts to anyone who might be interested. How many months now without even a 5% correction in the major averages? Perhaps too many. JMHO, RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13348)	2/15/2004 10:30:13 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95761

Thanks Don. what is the best company or companies in the table, if any, that are most similar to Agilent? Also, why are they leading the table in terms of the 8 percent gain during the past 4 weeks while they have the highest PEG in the table? You show a 10% growth rate yet Agilent makes the same sort of testers that TER (15), KLIC (18%) and VECO (18%) make. Give A a 15% growth rate and its PEG would show as 1.67, still high but much better. 18% growth gives it a PEG of 1.56. IF you look at the semiconductor side, it is much like LLTC (22%) and MXIM (25%). At 22% growth, A would have a PEG of 1.14, lower than both MXIM and LLTC. IF you compare it to a finished product seller that ALSO makes semiconductors like MOT, then you see A's PEG of 2.46 is lower than MOT's of 2.78 with the same LT growth rate. Look at Price/Sales and Price/Book P/S P/B PEG LT Growth A 2.90 6.22 2.46 10% A@22% 2.90 6.22 1.14 22% MOT 1.51 3.22 2.78 10 TER 1.79 3.78 1.20 15 LLTC 19.47 7.02 1.61 22 MXIM 14.25 7.74 1.36 25 INTC 6.66 5.29 1.37 15 FNSR 4.37 2.93 N/A (still projected to lose money) I added FNSR which is one of their competitors in Fiber Optics. I'd think Agilent should grow faster than Intel and MOT but perhaps not as fast as MXIM or LLTC.