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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (17357)	2/15/2004 12:12:27 PM
From: Tradelite	Respond to of 306849

<<In spite of their efforts, you believe the Fed is not counting a significant number of private loans. This is not very encouraging. It means the indebtedness of American home owners is being seriously understated and household financial stability is indeed resting on a slender reed.>> I said I suspect the Fed doesn't know about all the loans existing out there in the real world. Sellers in a low-interest rate environment could see this as a great benefit in low-interest rate times. I would also suggest that you would see a tremendous increase in owner-financed, non-Fed, deals if interest rates increase. As a seller, I'd be perfectly willing to take less for the property in return for a higher-than-market (usually 2 points) interest rate on monthly payments, and without paying the traditional selling/closing fees on the deal upfront. This is precisely how many properties got sold during the extremely high interest-rate times in history. I'm sure the Fed knows about all loans processed by banks. The Fed does not know now, and will never know, all the deals that go down without bank involvement. If you recall, this discussion started with my question about the figure stating 39 percent of all homes are owned free and clear. I would simply like to know who and where that figure came from. It doesn't appear possible to me to collect such information on a reliable basis and call it a fact.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (17357)	2/15/2004 12:52:54 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

If you're correct, even a modest downturn is going to cause massive loan defaults in the housing market. Like a 39% fall from the peak that occurred in Japan? How wide spread was the fall out from that downturn? How high did the default rate go?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (17357)	2/15/2004 5:13:08 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I don't know where you live, but if this thing comes to your town it could be good for a laugh. Apparently Congress is not backing the Bush tax cuts as permanent, so the 3 stooges are out trying to drum up support. 'Jobs & growth' bus tour will tout Bush policies; Dems angry Treasury Secretary John Snow, Commerce Secretary Don Evans and Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, joined by SBA Administrator Hector Baretto, will launch their trip Tuesday in Spokane. They've scheduled events later in Richland and Yakima, and then head to Oregon for events in Portland and Eugene on Wednesday. The state Democrats' spokeswoman, Kristin Brost, dismissed the tour as a taxpayer-financed campaign stunt from a failed administration. seattlepi.nwsource.com

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (17357)	2/16/2004 4:43:07 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Hi Elroy, do they also have access to people's individual bank balances too, even if a person hasn't taken out a loan? Seems like a person's balance should be their own personal business. Are there no privacy laws? One engineer I know that paid cash for a house, had a hold placed on the purchase of his house so they could run a short investigation. They actually thought he might have been a drug dealer - because he paid in cash. The only thing he ever did wrong in his life, was work hard and save money. At least they were honest to him, about what they thought he might have been. He laughed it off. But I thought it was strange that it's so rare in this country for people to actually save money before they buy something, that they actually get investigated if they do. Regards, Amy J