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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13352)	2/15/2004 4:11:15 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95730

This post is similar in nature to the last post on the Group, but it addresses the SOX. First of all the table below shows the period of 11/3 03 to 2/13/04 for the SOX. - 11/3/03 2/13/04 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG XLNX 33.30 41.51 25 1.11 37 24 1.56 MOT 13.84 17.22 24 0.62 28 10 2.78 BRCM 33.66 38.63 15 1.08 36 30 1.19 LSI 9.49 10.51 11 0.47 22 19 1.18 MU 14.75 15.73 7 0.66 24 18 1.32 TER* 24.24 25.82 7 1.44 18 15 1.20 MXIM 50.06 52.79 5 1.55 34 25 1.36 ALTR 21.30 22.33 5 0.73 31 23 1.36 TXN 29.93 30.77 3 1.29 24 20 1.19 STM 27.22 26.69 -2 1.26 21 19 1.11 LLTC 43.80 42.25 -4 1.22 35 22 1.61 AMD 15.93 14.94 -6 0.59 25 15 1.69 TSM 11.47 10.63 -7 0.69 15 25 0.62 KLAC* 59.19 54.34 -8 2.38 23 20 1.13 NSM 42.82 38.95 -9 1.83 21 16 1.33 AMAT* 24.56 21.77 -11 0.96 23 20 1.13 INTC 34.04 30.14 -11 1.47 21 15 1.37 NVLS* 43.94 33.26 -24 1.56 21 20 1.09 TOTALS 533.54 528.28 -1 20.91 SOX-X 515.77 510.57 -1 COMPQX1967.70 2053.56 4 Again, just like the Group, there is a very wide swing between the top and bottom stock in the table. XLNX is up 25 percent while NVLS is down 24 percent over this period. KLAC, AMAT and NVLS have really been a big anchor on the SOX over this period with losses of 8, 11 and 24 percent respectively. The next table shows the earnings estimates at the 2 points of 11/3 and 2/13, and the difference between the 2 points. - DATA FROM FIRST CALL - 11/3/03 02/13/04 - EARNINGS EST EARNINGS EST EARNINGS CHG SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR ALTR 0.39 0.52 0.57 0.73 0.18 0.21 AMAT 0.13 0.46 0.51 0.96 0.38 0.50 AMD -0.89 0.19 0.37 0.59 1.26 0.40 BRCM 0.46 0.69 0.94 1.08 0.48 0.39 INTC 0.81 1.15 1.25 1.47 0.44 0.32 KLAC 0.91 1.74 1.12 2.38 0.21 0.64 LLTC 0.94 1.14 0.97 1.22 0.03 0.08 LSI -0.07 0.24 0.31 0.47 0.38 0.23 MOT 0.21 0.43 0.46 0.62 0.25 0.19 MU -0.16 0.72 -0.01 0.66 0.15 -0.06 MXIM 1.13 1.43 1.18 1.55 0.05 0.12 NSM 1.06 1.42 1.40 1.83 0.34 0.41 NVLS 0.21 0.71 0.83 1.56 0.62 0.85 STM 0.44 0.85 0.81 1.26 0.37 0.41 TER -0.59 0.48 0.96 1.44 1.55 0.96 TSM 0.32 0.51 0.56 0.69 0.24 0.18 TXN 0.42 0.80 0.94 1.29 0.52 0.49 XLNX 0.65 0.88 0.75 1.11 0.10 0.23 TOTAL 6.37 14.36 13.92 20.91 7.55 6.55 Another very good performance over the period shown, but not good enough to move the SOX forward with a loss of 1 percent. Also, in reference to the top table, note that INTC is in next to last place with an 11 percent loss - one of the big players in the NASDAQ not doing well.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13352)	2/15/2004 8:24:54 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95730

Food for thought on the SOX and the market in general. 1.) The SOX looks like it will at least retest its lower Bollinger Band at 487: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14] 2.) Amateur Investor sees a double top in place for the DOW and S&P 500 and is concerned that the SMH may head as low as 37.50: investorshub.com 3.) InvestmentHouse sees a head and shoulder top for the SOX is believes a retracement to the neckline at 475 may be coming soon: investorshub.com 4.) FinacialSense.com is worried about the failure of the dow transports to set a new high when the DJIA did last week. According to the Dow Theory there is a real potential for concern here: financialsense.com My own thoughts continue to be that we buy the dips but I see no reason to get overly aggressive until we see enough selling for this MarketGuide chart to suggest that the NASDAQ is oversold: tal.marketgauge.com That could happen fairly quickly or it could take a little while but since we are almost done with earnings we should expect a bit more consolidation at the very least. JMHO, RtS