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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (8904)	2/15/2004 8:26:59 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Cary, $5B order rate per Q is roughly 2000 pieces of equipment/Q using $2.5M as an average ASP. I don't think AMAT or their suppliers have the available resources to manufacture, build, test and ship that massive amount of orders without significantly increasing backlog and stringing out deliveries to 3+ quarters from order placement. I'm just mulling some rough numbers about potential equipment sales using 25 new fabs as a guess of current fab construction. Assuming that AMAT were to sell 150 pieces of equipment to each new fab, that would be 3750 potential orders, and does not include existing fab equipment upgrade orders. This is a just a WAG but maybe will temper your anticipated quarterly order expectations and duration. BB