To: mishedlo who wrote (34 ) 2/15/2004 6:06:31 PM From: ild Read Replies (1) | Respond to Mish, I'd buy the numbers if it was for new jobs.On A Roll?...We're staring down the barrel of another payroll employment report this Friday. You already know how we feel about the current labor situation. If we had to vote for the most critical economic indicator or statistic looking ahead, it would be payroll employment. Let's face it, it's simply the key to transitioning from a stimulus led economic recovery to an economy that can sustain its own growth trajectory completely independent of fiscal or monetary stimulus. As we have already beat to death many a time, wage gains go hand in hand with payroll employment as being critical to a normalized economic recovery ahead. The folks at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) recently published a study chronicling state by state labor market experience as characterized by wage levels. Very quickly, the EPI describes itself as "a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank that seeks to broaden the public debate about strategies to achieve a prosperous and fair economy". The founders of and contributors to this institute include headline names such as Bob Reich (former labor secretary) and economist Lester Thurow of MIT. This recent study looked at average wages in industries that are expanding and industries that are contracting. Data used for the study came directly from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the same folks responsible for the monthly payroll employment data. Lastly, the study covers the period from the recession end in November of 2001 up until November of 2003. Two full years worth of post recessionary experience.
