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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (13362)	2/16/2004 4:55:29 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95761

Michael, I am agreeing with you on the points you are making in your post, but for the near term, it appears that a good segment of the investment community believes that now is the time to sell. The following is a sample from Barron's online posted on the IHub. investorshub.com <<"This is a very cyclical industry, and we'd rather be six months early than one day late," says Allen Steinkopf, analyst at Federated Investors, who says the funds sold all their positions in Applied Materials, KLA-Tencor and ASML Holding in January.>> I suspect a lot more of that mentality is "out there" and has been the cause of weakness in the semi-equips and the SOX for the past few weeks. I agree much more with Cary's position over the past many months(years?) that this will be a much longer cycle than in the past. However, having said that, there could well be some "mini cycles" within the long upward portion of the major cycle. Until the Goldman Sach's, CSFB's, Barron's, etc, change their mindset, we'll probably continue this present weakness. As you state: <<...the SCE industry would be the best stock bets in town if they could achieve 5% sequential order growth for the next 3 or 4 years. The compounding alone would make many of these companies about 1 to 5 times the size they are currently (based on some companies getting more of the business then others).>> Over on the AMAT thread, Brian has just posted an article that talks about the expected growth. Message 19812987 <<"The semiconductor industry's growth rate will slow to 10-12 percent on average in the coming years, slower than the traditional rate but slightly more robust than earlier predictions, an STMicroelectronics vice president said Monday (Feb. 16). Alain Dutheil's prediction of the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is somewhat more aggressive than that reported by the Semiconductor Industry Association, which forecasts 8-10 percent CAGR in the coming years. The industry's historic rate has been 15-17 percent since the 1960s.>> If the above prognostication is true, there should be a lot of money yet to be made by buying the semis. Don