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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bio_kruncher who wrote (10448)	2/16/2004 8:24:19 PM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 52153

i would add date of decision if applicable. Jon

To: bio_kruncher who wrote (10448)	2/16/2004 11:56:12 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Thanks bio_kruncher. One issue is that item no. 3 (approvable) not only covers a multitude of results but is (in my view) also the most likely of these outcomes. I'd suggest we refine it something like as follows: 3A. (Best approvable) - indications are that approval will be routine, with a short review cycle. 3B. (Good approvable) - also routine, but no clues on review cycle and/or some minor unresolved issues 3C. (Unclear approvable) - significant unclear issues remain. 3D (Bad approvable) - additional trials (or similar) needed. This doesn't address the additional short vs long term label issues - presumably we'd likely only get hints of this. Comments on the above categorization attempts are welcome. Notice that the options market is also giving us its version of the likely outcome. The implied volatility smile (or smirk) for the March options is quite asymmetrical, with higher implied volatilities for low strike prices than for higher ones. (Best described as a twisted smile. <g>) I have to think if I can figure a way to go backwards from these implied volatilities to derive the price distribution that is being predicted. Peter

To: bio_kruncher who wrote (10448)	2/20/2004 6:11:56 AM
From: bio_kruncher	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

SEPR Summary Sorry to be a day late but had a busy day yesterday. I will start with an overall summary. I will submit additional stuff later when i have more time. I will also post a compilation of all messages so if you don;t want yours posted with name please let me know. There were 10 responses. Not everyone broke down the approvable item so I will first present the results with approvable pooled. overall Average weighted price n=10 mean=28.92 min= 15.45 max= 35.70 sd= 5.60 --------------------% probability----------$ price----- -------------------------n=10--------------n=varies----- ---------------------AVG MIN MAX AVG MIN MAX 1. Approval short 17.0 0 85 34.86 25.00 47.00 2. Approval Long 2.2 0 15 47.00 45.00 50.00 3. Approvable 66.3 0 95 29.52 20.88 35.00 4. Not Approvable 12.0 0 50 14.94 10.00 18.00 5. No action 2.5 0 10 20.50 20.00 21.00 note avgs for price are for those with nonzero probability. Well, I guess it is a sign that I am too optimistic when 3 of the max $ numbers are mine! bk