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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FiveFour who wrote (82)	2/16/2004 7:13:56 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

anyone have comments on Andy Xie or Roach? morganstanley.com

To: FiveFour who wrote (82)	2/16/2004 7:21:18 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Thanks Mish for taking the time to respond and I agree with your comments. - US likely wants a weaker currency to help with exports and maybe reduce outsourcing arb. - There seems to be a very low likelyhood that the US will raise rates because of the economic/job situation is not solid in an election year. -It is more likely that EU will lower rates. -Also possible that EU will increase intervention, however these actions may slow, but not stop the dollar's slide. -The US could use a moderate dose of inflation to help its debt problem and that will also suggests holding rates. -EU and Japan and US central banks cant agree on what should be done, if anything. That is EXACTLY what I am saying as well as how I am positioned. One can play currencies or one can play interest rates. I chose the latter because I think interest rates do not go up even IF currencies go opposite to my thinking. I have no FN idea what stocks will do, so I stay away except for quick trades. I know what stocks SHOULD do but they are not doing that! (yet anyway) Mish