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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (84)	2/16/2004 10:34:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 116555

in 1975-1980, energy price rises dominated commod scene that caused a systemic cost of business, household rise it was very much concentrated in energy but with no serious Asian supply to speak of, there was absolutely no lid on pricing so the Fed Reflation effort under Burns then Volcker succeeded nicely, but not without numerous bumps like three (count them, 3) recessions from 1972 to 1980 now we have 3-4 times the debts now we have a much more bloated USDollar currency now we have 10x more foreign ownership of our debts and we have a much wider systemic commodity price rise situation energy is only one part of the hikes in costs we have industrial costs across the board rising anyone who thinks this resolves quickly and quietly has rocks in his head we got massive cost inflation coming we got massive USDollar writedown coming I know over the weekend you mentioned it, but a truly enormous staggering deflationary effect coming is the Asian reserves writedown that speaks directly to standard definition of DEFLATION with fractional banking and reserves devaluation, you got instant leverage declines in allowable bank portfolios of loans damn, this is gonna get ugly / jim, the ugliest jackass of them all