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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13383)	2/16/2004 10:52:51 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95657

I think what many of the "Analysts" are missing is the tremendous loss of Bookings of the past many months, and years, compared to the averages. If this is any kind of a normal cycle, it should "stretch" for many months or years yet to make up for the recent past under investment. With your 9 year average at 1276, it's quite obvious in hindsight that 2000's 2689 average, being more then double the 9 year avg, was the nail in the coffin for the NA SCE companies' stock prices. I understand your point but I think we need to look at the concept of "average bookings" very closely. I'm not sure that there truly has been a large shortfall or "under investment". If we average the monthly bookings from 1996 through 1999, we get 1257 as the monthly average spent during that period. If we average the 2000 through 2003 period, we get 1325 as the monthly average. Not exactly a great shortfall or under investment. The key in this examination is that the overinvestment in year 2000 makes up for the shortfall for the past 3 years. It should be noted that we are ramping up bookings going into 2004 to make up for the obvious shortfall in 2003. However, at the rate we are going up, the 2003 shortfall may be wiped out very quickly! The analysts may be concerned that we will see a possible repeat of the quick cycle we saw during 2002, when we had only 8 months of booking growth before the caution returned. The current call is for 1H04 to be great and the 2H04 to "slow significantly". Some are even calling for the cycle to be over by 2005 and they are now expecting negative order growth next year. I can understand a little of their worry. In the past 4 months bookings have risen 41% from 779 to 1100. If this sequential growth continues for the next 6 months, we could be seeing the bookings totals for June well over 1700! Is this too far, too fast?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13383)	2/17/2004 5:48:23 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95657

Some news this evening from CBS.Marketwatch. cbs.marketwatch.com <<Network Appliance, Agilent By Carolyn Pritchard, CBS MarketWatch.com Last Update: 5:09 PM ET Feb. 17, 2004 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Network Appliance topped the volume leaders list with a 4 percent gain in Tuesday's after-hours session after the company beat Wall Street's third-quarter expectations, while Agilent shares tumbled more than 5 percent after the company's fiscal first-quarter results came in below analysts' forecasts.>>