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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (8211)	2/17/2004 11:35:48 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Feb 17 2004 11:19 trotsky (stock market) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved last week's AAII poll has seen its bear percentage shrink to 15% as well - similar to the II figure. also, still no put buying in evidence, and volatility premia ( mostly a measure of risk perception ) remain incredibly low. however, when i said last week that NO-ONE is looking down, i hadn't yet seen the latest CoT report, which contained some ammunition for the bulls: big speculators hold a large net short position in the spoos. note however that the commercial hedgers are net short as well, albeit only by a token amount ( i.e., they look to be neutral ) . the other side of the trade is inhabited exclusively by small traders, however, since the reportable limit is 1,000 contracts, you'd be considered 'small' with a 900 contracts position as well ( which would require you to put up over $31 million in initial margin ) . also, i've noticed that the non-reportables in the spoo have ceased to be a contrary indicator about 1 year ago. i'm at a loss as to why, but it's an empirical fact.