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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (168)2/17/2004 10:29:20 PM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
The Economist has an R-word index, although I'm not a current subscriber, it is essentially at zero.

This index is a very good predictor of recessions; but only about 1 or 2 months before they start. It is sort of like using the inverted yield curve to predict recessions. By the time the curve inverts, everyone knows a recession is likely. In other words both methods are useless.

Besides the coming recession (later this year or in 2005) will look different than most typical business cycle recessions.

Best to all!



To: mishedlo who wrote (168)2/18/2004 10:07:26 AM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 116555
 
>>the Stephen Roach theory that the US is too big to have a recession yet keep exporting. The US would cause the whole world to go into recession, and Japan, a capex based exporting machine, would have a huge problem<<

I think that the world does have a problem. China pegging to the dollar has just delayed the day of reckoning a bit ...


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