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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (10474)	2/18/2004 12:25:35 PM
From: fred hayes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Very welcome news, indeed! And since Antegren will, to some degree, eat into Avonex sales, the inbalance between Elan's MC increase and BIIB's increase is even more curious.

To: Biomaven who wrote (10474)	2/19/2004 5:40:18 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

The BIIB/ELN divergence continues. Peter pointed out that BIIB was moving disproportionately to ELN. That divergence has continued and even expanded. Two reasons have been given to support a greater than share-proportionate (93%) move in ELN. (Reduced financial risk - Peter) (Avonex cannibalization by Antegren for BIIB, FredHayes) PRE 2/18/2004 2/19/2004 BIIB 44.25 53.22 58.88 Gain 8.97 5.66 ELN 9.8 11.78 13.33 Gain 1.98 1.55 Proj G 8.39 5.29 Shortfall 6.41 3.74 Cum Shortfall 10.15 BIIB shares 327.6 ELN shares 350.43 Adj %93.49% ELN has in these two days only moved 26% of what we would project if it were performing in line with the relative shares outstanding and is now fully 10 points behind where it should be. So either we have a serious mispricing by the market (either BIIB or ELN) or our understanding of the situation is faulty. Anyone see a good reason for the divergence? ij Message 19820538 ** Message 19820775