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Politics : John EDWARDS for President -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (73)2/18/2004 9:49:08 PM
From: Glenn Petersen  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1381
 
Ann,

I doubt that Zogby would skew the results to please a client. In the polling business, reputation is everything. Zogby is very well regarded and has historically been more accurate than most.

The USA Today/CNN poll was taken a few days later than the Zoby poll, which may account for part of the variance. While I cannot find the size of their sample, I suspect that they were comparable.

The polls are going to bounce all over the place. Given that all of the media focus has been on the Democrats, with their constant pounding of GWB, it is not surprising that Bush is behind. The focus of the coverage will begin to change when either Kerry or Edwards clinches the nomination.

The "red" state/"blue" state focus of the Zogby poll is interesting and very positive for Bush. Because of the 2000 census, the "red" states have picked up some additional electoral votes. I forget how many. When I run across the number, I will post it here.

BTW, I think that Edwards is going to surprise a few people on March 2. He has a much more positive message (and image) than Kerry. Kerry has a history and baggage. The lack of foreign policy experience for Edwards is obviously a negative. Given the post-9/11 environment, I do not think that the lack of experience can be fixed by adding an experienced VP.