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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (46461)	2/19/2004 4:43:19 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Mary, most people, when discussing this, miss the point that the world is very asymmetrical. We have countries well up the development curve that no longer rely on mass but on intelligence to create wealth and we have the laggards, forever stuck in 1920, which Brazil is the typical example. The laggards, LATAM, Africa, and Middle East rely on raw materials for wealth creation. Asians -outside Japan- are catching up fast on the developed world and to climb the development ladder they have to consume a lot of raw materials. This is, right now, creating a blip on the commodities market that will last as long as Asians grow through that stage. In the stage the Asians are, <<ingenuity and mental intelligence>> is limited and there is not much devoted to intangibles. It is being applied to the Stalinist type of economy, i.e., throwing capital, raw materials and labor at the economy. Once they burn through this stage, they have to move up the ladder, and then raw materials and commodities are no longer of essence. Once Asians go through this -and they will much fast than Europeans and US- then ship building ad other big iron stuff plus manufacturing is going to be done in South Africa, Nigeria or Angola. Then we will have another boomlet -say in some 30 to 40 years- as Africans move up the ladder.