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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (229)	2/19/2004 11:32:57 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Action in the USD. The greatest threat that I see to the downward trend in the USD is that an enormous amount of money has already been made, and the preponderance of traders who speculate in this area--and in gold and in silver and in the commodities--either trade using TA or keep their eye on TA. Meanwhile, it is clear that the fundamental flows out of the dollar are ferocious, as evidenced by the 24/7/365 intervention of Japan and the never-say-die purchasing our of our Treasuries, for similar purposes. I think I've finally grown comfortable with the idea that the Dollar is in a Fundamental, Secular Bear Market--but everyone on top of this trade has done very well in a short amount of time. Remember, it's not often you see such a reversal as we have seen in the EUR/USD from it's lows. Making money as a speculator in FOREX is hard work for the majority of one's trading career--so too with bonds. I'm seeing alot of chatter in the system about this particular intersection, today, this week, for the USD. While I am mildly persuaded that this pause or bounce could extend itself--I am more inclined to think the next leg down is upon us. In fact, I began to detect in all the haywire of trading this past week--that the dollar-bears were finally ready to sustain bullish buying of gold, silver, and commodities--in defiance of EuroZone Figures who wished to talk the EUR/USD down. That's what I "smell" in the sytem. My gut has been telling me for 2 weeks the Dollar is set to make big, big headlines.

To: mishedlo who wrote (229)	2/19/2004 4:35:30 PM
From: TH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

mishedlo, Great thread. Two questions (well more than that really). Do you have a target for a correction in gold and silver? I assume the correction would be triggered in part from an improvement in the dollar? And, assuming gold has been fairly stable in Euros, when we talk about a deflation pullback in the price of gold, I assume this must be a global deflation? Or is it that the decline in gold by US Dollars, would bring weakness into the global market? Thx, learn a lot here, and there. TH