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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (236)	2/19/2004 12:18:06 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Philly Fed numbers totally sucked today which is good for my Eurodollar plays! I took 15 off for 2 and shorted 20 (15 for 9 and 5 for 10) phil.frb.org February 2004 Activity in the region's manufacturing sector continues to expand, according to firms surveyed for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Although indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments fell from their January readings, they remain at relatively high levels. For the fifth consecutive month more firms reported increases in employment than reported declines, and a larger percentage of firms reported higher average work hours this month. Firms reported an increase in input prices again this month and some upward pressure on prices of their own manufactured goods. Expectations for overall growth over the next six months remain very positive, and about one-third of the firms expect employment to increase. Growth Continues but Some Indicators Fall Back The diffusion index of current general activity, the survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, decreased from 38.8 in January to 31.4 and has now been positive for nine consecutive months (see chart). Although some current indicators fell this month, they continue to reflect solid growth in the region's manufacturing sector. The new orders index fell nearly 9 points, and the shipments index fell almost 14 points. Still, both indicators remain at relatively high levels. Firms reported an increase in unfilled orders and essentially steady inventories this month. The delivery times index, at 7.2, is at its highest reading since January 1999. Manufacturing employment at the firms in our survey has improved recently. Although the current employment index fell this month, the continued positive reading suggests that labor market conditions have stabilized, especially in the last three months. Notably, the average workweek diffusion index increased nearly 11 points, to its highest reading in the history of the series. Price Indexes Drift Higher Firms reported higher costs again this month. Over 46 percent reported higher input prices, and only 3 percent reported lower prices. The prices paid diffusion index increased for the seventh consecutive month. Twenty-four percent of firms reported that prices for their own manufactured goods were higher this month, while 5 percent reported lower prices. The current prices received index is now at its highest reading since June 1989. Firms' expectations regarding future price increases continue to drift higher. The future prices paid index has now risen for six consecutive months. Both the future prices paid and prices received indexes have increased 13 points since December. Manufacturers Are Still Optimistic Overall expectations for the next six months remain optimistic, although a few indicators were slightly lower this month than last. The future general activity index decreased from 53.9 in January to 51.4 this month, but it remains at a relatively high level (see chart). The future new orders index actually increased 6 points and the future shipments index was mostly unchanged. Firms expect unfilled orders to increase over the next six months, and delivery times will be longer. More firms (39 percent) expect inventories to increase over the next six months than to decrease (25 percent). The future inventory index has trended higher over the last six months and is now at its highest reading since 1984. In response to the special questions this month (see Special Questions), 37 percent of the firms expect to increase inventories over the next three months and 48 percent expect to increase inventories over the next six months. The most important factors cited by firms for deciding on inventory adjustments were new orders, deliveries to customers, change in customer inventories, and seasonal conditions. Firms' expectations regarding employment improved slightly this month: the future employment index increased 4 points in February. The percentage of firms expecting to increase employment over the next six months (33 percent) exceeds the percentage expecting to decrease employment (13 percent). Firms' expectations for capital spending declined only slightly this month: 30 percent indicated they will increase capital spending over the next six months; only 6 percent will decrease such spending. Summary Current indicators this month suggest that growth in the region's manufacturing is continuing, but the pace was slightly slower this month. Indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments, nevertheless, remain at relatively high levels. Respondents to the survey reported that employment and average work hours increased this month, and indexes for both unfilled orders and delivery times indicate expanding manufacturing activity. Firms reported higher prices for inputs, however, and more firms reported higher prices of their own manufactured goods. Manufacturing executives' outlook for growth continued to be favorable, and firms were slightly more optimistic about future employment at their plants.

To: yard_man who wrote (236)	2/19/2004 12:25:56 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Someone tell me WTF they are crowing about. IMO these numbers reeked. phil.frb.org February 2004 Activity in the region's manufacturing sector continues to expand, according to firms surveyed for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Although indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments fell from their January readings, they remain at relatively high levels. For the fifth consecutive month more firms reported increases in employment than reported declines, and a larger percentage of firms reported higher average work hours this month. Firms reported an increase in input prices again this month and some upward pressure on prices of their own manufactured goods. Expectations for overall growth over the next six months remain very positive, and about one-third of the firms expect employment to increase. Growth Continues but Some Indicators Fall Back The diffusion index of current general activity, the survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, decreased from 38.8 in January to 31.4 and has now been positive for nine consecutive months (see chart). Although some current indicators fell this month, they continue to reflect solid growth in the region's manufacturing sector. The new orders index fell nearly 9 points, and the shipments index fell almost 14 points. Manufacturing employment at the firms in our survey has improved recently. Although the current employment index fell this month, the continued positive reading suggests that labor market conditions have stabilized, especially in the last three months. Notably, the average workweek diffusion index increased nearly 11 points, to its highest reading in the history of the series. Manufacturers Are Still Optimistic