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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (8298)	2/19/2004 3:41:20 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu Feb 19 2004 13:54 trotsky (AuContraire) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved no doubt the uncertainty stems from the fact that official noises about the dollar's weakness are getting louder, while at the same time, speculators hold very large ( in historical terms ) short positions in the dollar ( or rather, long positions in the non-dollar currencies ) . so there is potential for a bigger upward correction in the dollar. otoh, currency trends are per experience very inert - and history also shows that once the dollar begins to decline due to a too large current account deficit, the decline does not end UNTIL the current account is back in balance. note also that should the G7 begin to intervene to prop up the dollar, they run the risk of failure, which would be extra bearish. the currency markets are too large for successful intervention against the trend. still, there's always the potential for a bigger short covering bounce, but it seems to me it would likely not go all that far, since there must still be a lot of potential sellers waiting in the wings ( note also that hedging of the dollar otc leads to outright selling by the counterparties of the hedgers ) . Date: Thu Feb 19 2004 11:45 trotsky (Apollo, 8:35) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Did you see the "Capital Inflow to the US" numbers in the Wall Street Journal yesterday - looked pretty good. More money by about $20B came into the US in Dec than required to finance the deficit. Thats not the sign of a currency in crisis - at least not last month." i disagree - it IS a sign of a crisis, as soon as you back out the huge Japanese intervention monies, which account for some 70-80% of the reported inflows.

To: ild who wrote (8298)	2/19/2004 6:40:38 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

To the extent that Hubbert (and Heinz) are correct about energy production, we should all be going long the coal miners. It's the only available fossil fuel alternative available in sufficient quantities after NG and crude reserves are exhausted (in the economic sense, not in terms of absolute depletion). Better throw in some "clean coal" tech....and some air pollution control stocks for good measure.....<NG> EDIT: I think I read that China will be a net IMPORTER of coal for the first time this year....