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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (291)	2/19/2004 7:26:08 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

everybody I read thinks that we have started a big counter-trend rally in the dollar -- same story every time we bump. fleck addressed this tonight. here's what he said: What Not to Defend in a Dollar Contra-Trend Away from stocks, gold was down 1% and silver down a couple percent, before each closing down 0.7%. Pressuring the metals was more weakness in currency land, with the Japanese yen leading the downside. I have received quite a number of emails and seen quite a bit of ink spilled about the potential for a big contra-trend rally in the dollar. I talked about this a lot at the beginning of the year. I suppose it could still happen, but at this juncture, my hunch is there won't be a big dollar rally. Yes, people are bearish on the dollar, and that view is pretty widely held. But I see far more chatter about a big contra-trend rally for the dollar than about its impending crisis/collapse. In fact, other than maybe Jim Grant, Richard Russell and myself, I haven't seen anybody talking about a real crisis. And, just because a lot of people are bearish on the dollar doesn't mean it has to rally, witness what has been happening in our stock market in the last year. Sentiment has been wildly lopsided and we still have gone up, which was also the case in the late 1990s. Fading markets simply because of psychology can make you look awfully clever sometimes, but it can also take you out of a bull market. Though I don't know what's going to happen, my guess is that the foreign currencies and metals will be kind of rangy for a while, with a continued upside bias.

To: yard_man who wrote (291)	2/19/2004 7:30:08 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 116555

tippet, mish and I are in the same camp and we can be wrong but only time will tell- long the metals Au+Ag- not the shares yet! been in and out and am currently out of the shares- trading trash (tech) for shtis n' giggles

To: yard_man who wrote (291)	2/19/2004 8:10:26 PM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 116555

Cheers, Tippet. You've Given Me Comfort... ...in all my positions, which spread from Oil to Metals, to dollar bloc currencies like the NZD. Now, should I thank you, or curse you? :-)

To: yard_man who wrote (291)	2/19/2004 8:35:18 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 116555

Nice post...agree with all of it. If you're a gold bug, the key is "don't fight the Fed" (and they ain't gonna tighten until after the election, if ever.....<NFG>) If they did tighten, I WOULD sell mining stocks, 'cause it'll all be $hit down the chute, bonds, equities and that includes dirts. "They" can't afford that, and the Fed has shown time and time again they don't have the spine to do the right thing when it's "unpopular". The ClownBuck to 90? In their dreams (and as the Allman's put it, they're "Hung up...on dreams they'll never see!")