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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ChinuSFO who wrote (3391)2/20/2004 6:15:45 PM
From: CalculatedRiskRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 81568
 
Chinu, there are a couple of threads on this topic; I've been following mish's: Subject 54696

I'm not familiar with Mauldin, but his comments are right on the money. If you want to get an understanding on what the Fed is thinking, this Fed research paper from June 2002 says it all "Preventing Deflation: Lessons From Japan's Experience in the 1990s"
federalreserve.gov

There is no way the Fed will change monetary policy in the near term, unless they cut rates or intervene in the 10 year (to lower the 10 year!). Mauldin is correct: We will not see an inverted yield curve before the next recession. Therefore, most of America will be blindsided when the recession occurs.

One thing that Mauldin doesn't mention is that the Bush fiscal policies are almost exactly wrong.

Very interesting subject - thanks for the post!