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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (46501)	2/20/2004 10:06:30 PM
From: Dr. Voodoo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

buy qqq puts Been mulling it over HEAVILY for a couple weeks waiting for a better entry. People are really bearish on the semis right now despite good news from AMAT, JNPR. I think it's gonna surprise a lot of people next week. The magic hand(read-- government intervention of unknown repute) may soon come in and lift us all. OTOH, something else has been bugging me about this grind up and looking at historical charts from the Dow after the 1929 crash. It's possible that we just do a long grind down on the NAZ. As a result, I feel more comfortable playing small highly leveraged positions like the emini in fast attack mode. Dow has much much farther to fall, and is in way way worse shape technically. Trading the DIA's leaps sucks, because of very little liquidity. So that leaves me with deep ITM, which ties up as much capital as just buying USPIX. So after having thought about it, and made almost nothing, today(except for some april puts I bot at the same time), I closed the position. I may re-enter, but if we reach the EotWawki, who's gonna buy my puts? I'm looking at USPIX or something else and going with just a large position and suck up a bunch of capital for a while. This is already what I've done with one of my IRA accounts. For the Dow, there is a 300-800 point drop comming and it will happen from nowhere and scare the hell out of a lot of people. Anybody who is in all blue chips should be sitting on a wet diaper about now. Today was the first time in a while that all the indices were in agreement. I know we're going to correct, but so does everybody else buying enormous put positions every time we get a down signal on the Q's. As such, I am still too worried we're going to get some kind of a blow off. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we took a hard nosedive right now, and I think it would setup the rest of the year for a steady grind up again, but I'm just not betting on it heavily. So, again, I'm still long term flat, medium term flat-long, short-term slightly short and scalping away, staying mostly in cash. Probably will sell some puts on my GSS position soon. What is your read on Gold ETF's? Are they going to hurt miner stocks? I'm not sure I get it one way or the other. Voodoo