Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tinkershaw who wrote (734)	2/21/2004 10:43:02 AM
From: que seria	Respond to of 2955

I'm in the same too-little-time position, mostly because I have a full time job and young family, and partly because I spend a lot of my available investing time positioning myself in other sectors (gold, energy in the last 3 years). dvdw (whom I've mostly read as dvd mogul on IHub) brought a pebble to this or another board a while back: Front Porch Digital (FPDI). I've looked at many of the stocks he tracks that are staking ground in VOIP, DVDs, or digital convergence, and that one stands out. But quite a few of the charts in those stocks signal either negative money flow (in the true sense, of holders selling) or shorting games (people/market makers selling what they don't own). I consider shorting per se to be just an unremarkable bet against the stock price unless done in size by large players (MMs, insiders, institutions, lawful or lawless U.S. and non-U.S. hedge funds or brokers) as an opportunistic, self-fulfilling prophecy in order to drive down the stock price and snatch shares from the retail investor (price being set at the margin, and that margin by definition being about short term supply and demand). I contrast that with shorting to benefit from a fall in price that the shorters see the market delivering without their fomenting it. If, as various companies and investors have alleged, shorters in some cases operate without even borrowing stock ("naked shorting?"), then perhaps the new rules changes (and CUSIP # changes by some companies) should offer some near-term upside in those stocks that have been victims of naked shorting. Meanwhile, price and volume on the charts (of which money flow is a derivative) make me very cautious about entry prices in some stocks I like as pebbles when I can't tell what's really happening in their shares. The buying demand has to be real; I have no way to know if the selling is. P.S.: I favor public corporal punishment and humiliation for crooks caught stealing the people's money by rigging markets or companies' financial statements in violation of the law. Restore pillorying, a little flogging, let the passerby speak with some rotten fruit, then a few years of brush-clearing (hey, GWB does it!), and before you know it there's a new attitude among the aspiring scum in nice suits. Where the motive for crime is greed, power and image, the best punishment inflicts their opposites.

To: tinkershaw who wrote (734)	2/21/2004 10:54:07 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 2955

OVTI are starting to get mighty expensive Just curious by what measure you think OVTI is expensive. The next quarter is their seasonally slow quarter and they gave guidance for 30-31 cents. Based on that, I would be surprised if FY '05 guidance was less than $1.50 (fiscal year starts in May).....which is a forward PE of 20. Doesnt seem to bad for a company that is still growing significantly faster than 100% YoY. OTOH, from a G&K standpoint, there is a significant possibility that OVTI is no longer the King of CMOS image sensors. The fact that they thus far have been locked out of the Nokia account (STM) makes it extremely hard for them to maintain twice the market share of any of their competitors. Slacker