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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (30684)2/21/2004 6:33:51 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793840
 
An excellent piece on the real fears about Mel's movie. The taunt is chilling.

Amitai Etzioni Notes

"Auschwitz is your country, the ovens are your home"

I have published over 1600 op-eds and essays during my lifetime. Never before have I found a door as firmly shut as when I tried to publish the following text. You be the judge as to whether this op-ed deserves to be read, and if so -- please do pass it on:

Anti-Semitic sentiments are about to be put to a test. On Ash Wednesday, Mel Gibson’s controversial film, The Passion of The Christ, will be released. The film depicts, in gruesome detail, the last 12 hours of Christ’s life, and includes scenes in which Jews encourage and celebrate the Crucifixion. Some, like columnist Robert Novak, say the movie is merely “a work of art.” Others, including a group of scholars commissioned by the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, fear that it may provoke some of the millions who merely hold anti-Semitic attitudes – to act on them. In either case, what troubles me is how unwilling many spiritual and political leaders are to acknowledge how widespread the dryrot of antisemitism is, especially overseas, which is an essential first step to dealing with this problem.

The Council on Foreign Relations recently conducted a meeting in Washington, DC on the future of the European Union. (Unlike most meetings of the Council, this one was on the record, so I am free to quote what was said at this gathering of the most distinguished foreign policy group in the country.) The speakers covered many facets of the changing attitudes among Europeans towards the United States and much else – but they did not address antisemitism.

Hence, during the Q&A period, I remarked: “As a Jewish child who was chased out of Germany by the Nazis, and who lost most of his extended family in the concentration camps, I am particularly sensitive when soccer hooligans in Italy shout, ‘Auschwitz is your country, the ovens are your home.’” I then added: “One may say that they are merely hooligans. However, antisemitism is rising again all over Europe. What are the causes? What can one do about them?”

Radek Sikorski, a former Polish deputy foreign affairs minister, answered that he was unaware of any such data, and that most of what I was referring to was just talk. Whatever violent incidents have taken place, he said, were the acts of Muslims. These, in turn, reflected of their feelings about Israel. You know, he elaborated, Europeans see Israel differently than Americans. In response, I promised to send him data that show that the problem extends far beyond the small Muslim minority, which amounts to about 5 percent of the European population (15 million out of 300 million).

In a recently released survey of nine Western European countries, conducted by a leading Italian newspaper, 40 percent of respondents agreed that Jews have “a particular relationship with money,” a standard anti-Semitic cliche. Almost 50 percent responded that Jews were “different,” which led many of them to feel that Jews should not be considered “real” compatriots. 35 percent held that Jews should stop “playing the victim” of the Holocaust. Other surveys carried out by a variety of research groups have found similar results. Thirty-five percent of Italians believe that Jews secretly control finance and the media; in the United Kingdom, nearly one in five Britons say that they would not want to have a Jewish prime minister and that Jews have too much influence in their country; and in Switzerland, a 2000 poll found that when presented with three well-known stereotypes about Jews, 60 percent of respondents believed at least one.

As to just talking, I agree with Eli Weisel, who said, “ We have antennas and when we tell you to beware, there is danger, believe us. And I'm telling you, our antennas tell us that there is a moral danger to humanity today.” Rising and repeated expressions of prejudice, whether they are anti-black, gay, or anyone else, should serve as warning signals because all too often they are preludes to violent action, even if only by a small minority of those who believe such stereotypes. And action need not be violent to be troublesome; denying jobs and housing or denigrating people should also be of concern.

I am not saying that people who harbor such feelings should be denied the right to speak. Those who seek to ban hate speech only leave hate to simmer in the dark. However, we should view such expressions as a clarion call for intensive public education campaigns. But these will not be undertaken if, again, as was the case when Hitler was just warming up, public leaders ignore that antisemitism is widespread and continuing to spread further.

When the Council meeting closed, a former state department official approached me and waved his finger in my face as he exclaimed, “Shame on you. You should admit that these are anti-Israeli, not anti-Semitic, feelings.” Upon leaving the meeting, I ran into a friend and told her how taken back I was by this claim. At that point, an author and regular contributor to the American Prospect, who happened to be listening in, responded that indeed what I and others were calling anti-Semitism were merely anti-Israeli sentiments.

True, many Europeans believe that Israel is a great threat to world peace. But I was not referring to these data. What do taunts like, “Auschwitz is your country, the ovens are your home” have to do with hatred of Israel? The anti-Semitic prejudices about Jews’ cleanliness, preoccupation with money, and so on, existed long before Israel was born, and have long been used as excuses to slaughter Jews.

There is no magic cure for anti-Semitism (or other prejudice). However, we know that public education campaigns help when they make people aware that they are blaming Jews (or other minorities) for whatever frustrates them – massive unemployment, defeat in war, or political treachery by their leaders. We also know that it is best to start early with such education, in high school at the latest, and that face-to-face meetings between people of different backgrounds, if properly constructed, may be of service. However, for such programs to be undertaken on the necessary scale, public leaders must first acknowledge that anti-Semitic attitudes are widespread and may be converted into violent action. I fear that in the coming months, following the release of Mel Gibson’s highly provocative movie, we shall see plenty of evidence to this effect.

I have rarely wished so strongly that I would be proven wrong.

amitai-notes.com



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (30684)2/21/2004 7:06:38 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793840
 
Good Fences Make Good Neighbors
For once, Israelis agree about something.
by Peter Berkowitz - Weekly Standard
Peter Berkowitz teaches at George Mason University School of Law and is a fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution.



Jerusalem
IN ISRAELI POLITICS, contentiousness is the norm and consensus is rare. This makes all the more striking the broad and deep consensus that has formed among Israelis around the conviction that the country, without delay, must complete the construction of the security fence separating it from the West Bank and the Palestinians who live there.

The cause of the consensus is terror. In the old days, before September 2000, it was a mark of the country's national security challenge that almost every adult Israeli had served in the military, and every Israeli had friends and loved ones in the army. These days, the distinguishing mark of the country's national security challenge is something grimmer: Almost every Israeli knows somebody who has been wounded, maimed, or blown to bits by a suicide bomber. For Israelis, the front line is now at home, and it is this transformation of their struggle with the Palestinians that has produced an overwhelming majority--perhaps two thirds of the citizenry--in favor of the security fence.

Predictably, the international community is up in arms. Last December, the United Nations General Assembly voted to refer the question of the legality of Israel's security fence to the International Court of Justice for an advisory opinion. Working on a greatly expedited schedule, the court set a deadline of January 30 for briefs, with oral arguments to begin on February 23. The Palestinians charge that the fence violates international law, infringes their human rights, and imposes on them grave social and economic hardship. The United States, along with many other nations, opposes the referral of the question to the court on the grounds that the court is, at this time, an inappropriate forum for the question. While the European Union is among the group that opposes involving the court, its representatives have made clear that the E.U. agrees with the Palestinians on many of their charges.

In fact, the case for Israel's security fence is clear and compelling and accounts for the dramatic convergence of Israeli opinion in support of it.

Yet as late as three years ago, almost nobody in Israel was thinking about a fence, in part because it contravenes both left-wing and right-wing views. Those who have embraced the fence from the left have been forced to relinquish their dream of Israelis and Palestinians integrating their economies, traveling daily across open borders, and living together in harmony. And those who have come to it from the right have had to abandon the ambition to maintain Israeli control over, and settlement in, all or most of the disputed territories without partition.

The catalyst for both camps has been the staggering scale of Palestinian terrorism since late September 2000. In the war launched by the Palestinians following Yasser Arafat's rejection of Prime Minister Ehud Barak's offer of a Palestinian state in all of Gaza, almost all of the West Bank, and a good portion of the Old City in Jerusalem, more than 900 Israelis have been killed and more than 6,000 have been wounded. In a country of about 6.4 million, that is the equivalent of almost 40,000 dead and a quarter of a million wounded in the United States.

RETIRED MAJOR GENERAL Uzi Dayan, former head of Israel's National Security Council, the fence's original architect in 2001, and its foremost defender today, calls the fence "a precondition to everything." By making Israel more secure, he argues, the fence--one third of which has been built and all of which is due to be completed by the end of 2005--will advance the peace process and thereby serve the interests of Palestinians as well as Israelis. But his first priority, he emphasizes, is Israel's security, which he smoothly translates into the language of human rights. "The basic human right is to live. So before talking about human rights and disturbing the daily routine of Palestinians, which is an issue we need to remember, we need to fight terrorism effectively."

Looking over a winding stretch of the security fence not far from his home in the village of Cochav Yair, where the coastal plain turns into rolling hills and where Israel is at its narrowest, with less than 10 miles from the sea to the Green Line, the pre-1967 border based on the 1949 armistice line, Dayan tells me that "the fence is the ultimate obstacle. The only way to fight terrorism effectively is to build a fence, because you can't fight terrorism just offensively. You need a defense. And the best defense is a fence."

What makes Dayan so confident that the fence will be effective? "We built it everywhere in every place when we wanted to prevent infiltration: all along the Jordan River; in the Golan Heights; on the border from Lebanon we built it in eight months from the Mediterranean Sea to Mount Hermon. And the ultimate example is Gaza. In the last three and a half years, not even one terrorist managed to infiltrate from Gaza and to commit a suicide bombing or a terrorist attack. And there were dozens of attempts. Very few even managed to cross the fence." In addition, Dayan points out, terrorist attacks have been dramatically reduced in those areas of the West Bank where the fence has been completed.

Although critics casually refer to it as a wall, in fact more than 95 percent of the barrier that Israel is building around the West Bank is made out of chain-link fence. Not ordinary chain-link fence, to be sure. It is electrified so that when an intruder touches it, Israeli forces are alerted. In addition, on the Palestinian or east side of the fence, the Israelis have dug an anti-vehicle trench. To the immediate west, they have placed a sandy path, which soldiers patrol looking for signs of footprints. Beyond that is a paved two-lane road for military use, and beyond the road is another fence, in some places chain link and in others barbed wire. Further back, cameras mounted on towers monitor the entire system, which is about 50 meters in width. Where there is danger of sniper fire from a Palestinian city that borders an Israeli highway, or where the space is lacking, the Israelis construct instead a concrete wall.

For Dayan, there is no question about the urgency of completing the fence. The problem, he concedes, is the route. The only serious question that divides the newly consolidated Israeli majority is how far the fence should extend into the West Bank in order to bring within its protection Israelis in the settlements.

Dayan--like much of the Israeli military establishment, a man of the left--favors a fence that sticks close to the Green Line. Although he does not regard the Green Line, which runs through villages and corresponds to no natural boundary, as sacrosanct, a security fence that roughly corresponds to it will be considerably shorter, require less time and cost to build, intrude less on Palestinian life, be easier to defend, and generate less international opprobrium than the route advocated by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. While security was uppermost in his mind when he was designing the fence in 2001, Dayan sought to include as few Palestinians as possible on Israel's side, and to minimize hardships. He is pleased that in recent days the Sharon government has scaled back its plan for including Palestinian villages near Israel.

But Dayan stresses that all this is secondary for him: "I never buy the excuse of not building a fence because of conflict about the route of the fence. Which means I'm saying to my government: 'I'm sick and tired. I don't want to hear from you there is a problem, there is debate in the government. [Minister of Justice Yosef] Lapid thinks one way. [Minister of Defense Shaul] Mofaz says another approach. I say just build it. Decide about it. Talk to the Americans. Talk to the Palestinians. Talk among yourselves, for God's sake. But decide upon the route and build it.'"

There is harshness in Dayan's words. But there is also hope. By stopping terrorist attacks, he explains, the fence may strengthen the hand of Palestinian moderates who on their own are powerless to bring Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Al Aksa Martyrs Brigade under control.

MEANWHILE, the U.N. General Assembly, in the eyes of many thoughtful Israelis, has played into the hands of the extremists. When it placed the matter before the International Court of Justice, the General Assembly took the issue away from the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators charged with it under several U.N. Security Council Resolutions and agreements among the parties, including the U.S.-backed "road map." According to Daniel Taub, director of the General Legal Division at Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "there have been repeated attempts by Palestinians and the Arab group to refer issues in the conflict between us to international forums and specifically the International Court of Justice as part of a general campaign to internationalize the issues." In Taub's view, no good can come of this. In the first place, he argues, the court does not have jurisdiction: No dispute between states is supposed to come before the court without the consent of both parties. Moreover, the referral of the question of the legality of the fence shows bad faith, because the General Assembly had already passed a resolution condemning the fence as illegal.

Sitting across from Taub in his cramped office in Jerusalem, I ask him about a report of the U.N. secretary general summarizing the legal positions of the "Government of Israel" and the "Palestine Liberation Organization." Taub bristles. He tells me that the report badly misstates the Israeli legal position. Then, indignant, he reads me a passage indicating that there should be no tradeoffs between Israeli security and Palestinian freedom, that Israel must desist from any undertakings that infringe Palestinian rights or cause them hardships, even undertakings that Israel has concluded are necessary to defend itself from Palestinian acts of war.

More serious perhaps is the failure of the dossier put together by the United Nations to serve as the basis for the court's work to so much as mention Palestinian terror. A Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement that summarizes the legal position Israel adopted in its 130-page brief to the court (still confidential under court rules) minces no words:

Neither the question referred to the Court, nor the 20-paragraph General Assembly resolution referring it, makes any reference--not a single word--to the ongoing terrorism directed daily against Israel and its citizens. Similarly the extensive dossier of 88 documents on the question provided to the Court by the United Nations is, staggeringly, totally silent on the subject of Palestinian terrorist attacks. It is devoid of any of the United Nations resolutions condemning terrorism, as well as Israel's letters to the Secretary General detailing the terror attacks it has faced.

And this silence, Israel contends, is a fatal flaw:

It is inconceivable that the International Court of Justice should be requested to give an Advisory Opinion on the issue of Israel's security fence at the behest of the very terrorist organization which has been actively behind many of the murderous attacks which have made the fence necessary. It is even more inconceivable that the request should make no reference at all to the brutal reality of terrorism faced by Israel.

To the charge that Israel's fence is an effort to grab land by creating facts on the ground, Taub responds that a fence that was built right on top of the Green Line would be impractical, cutting through villages, running through valleys, and generally bearing no relation to security, topography, or the needs of daily life. Moreover, Taub emphasizes, the fence brings about no legal change in the status of the territories or the status of the residents, either Palestinians or Israelis who live in settlements. It is temporary, it can be moved and altogether dismantled. And it is not a border. It does not alter Israel's responsibility to protect settlements. And it does not alter ownership of the land on which it is built, which, when privately owned, becomes subject to a temporary requisition order. Israel pays compensation to the owners for use of the land and loss of profits. And Israel makes procedures available to Palestinians who wish to lodge protests against the fence's route. To date, 20 petitions have been submitted to Israel's High Court of Justice.

Further, argues Taub, it is not Israel that is trying to establish a political border but the Palestinians, who insist that, if there is to be a fence, it be built on the Green Line. The Green Line, Taub points out, was never intended to be a final legal border. U.N. resolutions, formal agreements between Israel and the Palestinians, and the road map are, he asserts, "absolutely clear" that the final determination of the border is a subject to be negotiated between the two sides. But won't the fence, whatever Israel's formal position, come to be thought of as a border by both sides to the conflict? Won't it, whatever Israel's intention, create facts on the ground? Taub is not moved. "You can't not fight terrorism--which is a precondition for entering into negotiations--and expect to receive your maximum demands from negotiations."

To the charge that the fence causes disproportional harm to the Palestinians, Taub insists that Israel recognizes genuine hardships and is taking great pains to minimize them. Planning for the route of the fence begins with the army, but before the government approves plans they must undergo an arduous process of adjustment, which involves several layers of consultation--with environmental experts, legal experts, and the local population. Alternative routes are explored, additional gates are considered, increased bus service is examined. The fence has already been moved twice in order to put Palestinian villages on the Palestinian side. And in Abu Dis, an Arab neighborhood most of which lies just beyond the Green Line, Israel is building a new kidney dialysis center for Palestinians cut off by the security fence from the old one.

Like Uzi Dayan, Taub insists that in the long run Palestinians too will benefit from the fence, for with the reduction in terrorism, Israel will need to take fewer intrusive measures in the West Bank. And to the extent that you take terrorism out of the equation, you weaken the militants and strengthen the moderates.

SHLOMO AVINERI, a distinguished political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and former director-general of Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, won't go as far as Dayan or Taub. He is a self-styled dove who was "rattled" by Camp David 2000. He considers Arafat's decision to go to war rather than accept Barak's offer a watershed moment in Israel's history, and he adamantly supports the fence. Typical of the left-leaning segment of the Israeli consensus, he wants it built as close as possible to the Green Line. But he dismisses the idea of Palestinian moderates. "What is important," says Avineri, "is that there hasn't been a clear statement on the part of any Palestinian leader that suicide bombers are murderers. Not one."

There are, Avineri observes, Palestinian leaders who will say they would recognize Israel if it were to abide by U.N. resolutions and international law. But, he stresses, no other state is spoken of in that way. We say Bosnia or China is in breach of international law, but we do not treat its compliance with international law as a precondition for recognition of its sovereignty. Given current attitudes, and an educational system that continues to instruct children with maps of the Middle East on which Israel does not appear, Israel may have to wait a generation or more, Avineri believes, to find negotiating partners on the Palestinian side.

Khaled Abu Toameh, a prominent Arab-Israeli journalist, takes a still harsher view of the Palestinian side. To be sure, he opposes the fence because of its impact on the Palestinian people, the damage to their livelihood, the restriction of their right to move about freely, the insult to their personal dignity. But to him, the fence is only a symptom of the real problem: the Palestinian leadership.

Of course, he says, Israelis are largely indifferent to Palestinian suffering. Of course Israelis do not really understand that the "ordinary, average Palestinian is a normal person who wants to wake up in the morning, send his children to school, care for his family, go to work, and just lead a normal life. He doesn't care about other things. The Palestinian Authority. Israel. They are not that important. What is important is not to disrupt normal life. And this fence disrupts normal life. It turns the life of many Palestinians into hell."

Nevertheless, the cause of the fence, Abu Toameh was sure, was not a desire on the part of Israeli majorities to rule over the Palestinians. If he were an Israeli Jew in these circumstances, he would favor a fence. Real responsibility for the construction of the fence, he is quite certain, lies with Yasser Arafat and the thoroughly cynical dictatorship he brought to the Palestinian people 10 years ago on the heels of the Oslo Accords.

But don't the Palestinians recognize Arafat as their legitimate leader? "Look," Abu Toameh says impatiently. "They want independence. They want their own state. But they don't want the corrupt and autocratic regime led by several hundred cronies of Arafat. They are stealing from the Palestinian people. I mean, what has the Palestinian Authority done for the Palestinian people over the last 10 years, since the signing of the Oslo accords? Basically, nothing." Nothing? "Yasser Arafat did not build one hospital. Or one school." Taken aback by his candor, I ask Abu Toameh whether he is speaking precisely. He responds sharply, "I am responsible for what I am saying. Arafat did not do anything. He did not rebuild one refugee camp. And the question is, one should ask, where did the money go? What happened? I mean, he got billions."

What is to be done? For Abu Toameh the critical first step is clear. "The Palestinian people's problem is their leadership. The Palestinian people's problem with the Israelis is a completely different issue. That could be solved in the long run. And it will be. But in order to solve that problem, and before we solve that problem with the Israelis, we need a proper Palestinian regime, we need proper government, proper institutions, democratic institutions, we need transparency. Basically the Palestinian Authority today is run as a private business by Yasser Arafat. And some of his aides. We need to liberate the Palestinian people, but from their leadership first, and then from the occupation."

YET IN THE SHORT TERM there is no avoiding the question of the security fence and the disputed territories. One afternoon, on the way back to my hotel on Mount Scopus, I ask the cabdriver to pass by Abu Dis, where the security fence is indeed a massive wall. When I ask him, as I do all Israeli cabdrivers, what his opinion of the fence is, he surprises me by responding in heavily Arabic-accented Hebrew. My Arab-Israeli cabdriver, a rarity, tells me that he is definitely opposed to it. En route through East Jerusalem, he says that the wall in Abu Dis has separated his family from his wife's parents, who live just on the other side. A visit that used to involve a few minutes' walk now takes a half hour to 45 minutes by car.

As we approach the wall, he points out shops on Israel's side that have been forced to close and tells me of many others on the Palestinian side that have gone out of business. We drive along the towering, menacing gray structure, 24 feet in height, that has been placed down the center of what used to be a main road, and he tells me that he doesn't know what the solution is, but it can't be this.

He knows there is blame to go around. He is disgusted by Arafat's weakness and ineffectiveness. I ask him whether he is ready for peace. "Ready?" he exclaims. "I live here. I work here. I work among the Arabs. I don't care who you are and what you are. I have children and a wife. I want to live. With dignity." I ask whether most Palestinians are like him. Without hesitation he says, "Yes." He pulls into a driveway not 10 yards from the fence. And then Abu Yosef, which he explains to me is what all his friends call him, invites me into his home, where I drink coffee with his wife and four shy, wide-eyed children.

I relate this encounter to Alex Yakobson, professor of classical history at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a prominent Israeli public intellectual, who over the last decade has migrated from the dovish left to the pragmatic center. He listens patiently. He neither smiles nor frowns. He replies resolutely: "The fence, it is true, is not nice. It is not aesthetic. It is not convenient. I do not underestimate the genuine hardship that it is causing. But it's also not nice when a bus full of passengers is blown up and their limbs and organs--hands and legs and heads--fly for tens of meters in all directions. From a purely moral point of view, nobody's freedom of movement is more precious than somebody else's life."

That indeed is the voice of the Israeli center today. It is a voice that understands that what is not nice may be necessary and proper. It is an increasingly dominant voice in Israel. It is a voice in which anger, sadness, hardness, and humanity blend. Under the circumstances, it is the voice of reason.




© Copyright 2004, News Corporation, Weekly Standard, All Rights Reserved.



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (30684)2/21/2004 9:15:32 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793840
 
Good analysis of possible Sharon motives. I tend to take him at face value. He has had enough.

Israel's Sharon Is Up To Something In Gaza. But What?

By Jonathan Rauch, National Journal

Jonathan Rauch is a senior writer for National Journal magazine, where "Social Studies" appears.

No one knows what Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is up to with his recent announcement that Israel intends to withdraw from most of its settlements in Gaza, but everyone knows it is momentous. Less than a year ago, notes David Makovsky, a senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Sharon insisted that he considered settlements in Gaza to be as important as Tel Aviv. Now Sharon is proposing to walk away, and to abandon a few, as yet unspecified, settlements in the West Bank as well.

There is no peace process. But there is no war process either. So Israelis are digging in for a long wait.

"It's of historic significance that the architect of the settlement movement has declared his willingness to oversee the dismantlement of that enterprise in Gaza," Makovsky says. "That creates a new baseline."

At the Brookings Institution, senior fellow and former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin S. Indyk remarks that no previous prime minister was willing to abandon even a single settlement outside the context of a final agreement with the Palestinians. "It's a revolution," Indyk says.

But what kind of revolution? That depends on what Sharon is up to. Take your pick:

1) Distraction. Sharon promised Israelis security but hasn't delivered. His popularity sank from over 50 percent after the Iraq war to 33 percent by late January. Worse, he is under threat of indictment. What better way to regain the political initiative and deflect the spotlight from his personal problems than to announce a bold policy change that, as it happens, 60 percent of Israelis support? Sure enough, following his Gaza stunner, Sharon's poll numbers rose.

Well, Sharon is a foxy politician, but it seems unlikely that he would repudiate a guiding principle of his career for momentary political advantage. He has something bigger in mind. But what?

2) Deal-breaking. Sharon has always resisted any final-status negotiation that would cede the West Bank, much of which he regards as essential to Israel's defense. He has also floated various schemes to unilaterally impose a meager, geographically discontinuous pseudo-state on the Palestinians. His government is building a barrier between Israel and the West Bank on the Palestinian side of the pre-1967 Green Line. Palestinians claim that the barrier will ultimately both encircle and divide them, preventing the establishment of a viable state. The Gaza plan, then, might merely be part of a design to subvert any chance of a negotiated settlement.

This is a reach. If Sharon wanted to deal-break, he could perfectly well encircle and carve up the West Bank without abandoning Gaza. Nor is there any evidence that the security barrier, either as built so far or as planned, will encircle the West Bank. In any case, neither the White House nor mainstream Israeli opinion would countenance a deal-breaking strategy, and Sharon is tough but not suicidal.

3) Delay. Sharon says the Gaza pullout will begin only if the U.S.-sponsored "road map" -- a plan to establish a new bilateral peace process -- remains stalled after six months or so. And he has hinted that a pullout might take two years. Perhaps, then, he is merely buying time to avoid repudiating the road map before the American elections.

Possible, but again a reach. Sharon has made plain that he wants American approval for his Gaza plan, and he has begun intensive diplomacy toward that end. The United States will ask for clarifications and adjustments in exchange for support and dollars to pay for the relocation of Gaza settlers. Initiating such a process in bad faith, while expecting never to deliver, would be the surest way to alienate President Bush, which Sharon cannot afford to do. It would incense both Palestinians and mainstream Israelis. Sharon is too smart to bluff if he knows his bluff will be called.

4) Demographics. In recent months, the Israeli media have been filled with predictions that Israel must separate physically from the West Bank and Gaza to avoid being demographically swamped by the Palestinians. Pulling out of Gaza and building a physical barrier are logical steps toward disentangling the Israeli and Palestinian populations.

Demographic self-defense is undoubtedly a major factor in Sharon's decision. And an ironic one. Israelis, after years of swearing they would never allow the establishment of a Palestinian state on their borders, now find they desperately need one, both to suppress terrorism and to preserve Israel's Jewish identity. Still, why choose to act on demographics now, when unilateral withdrawal may weaken Israeli deterrence by convincing Hamas that violence works? Demographics or no, why would a tough-minded general retreat under fire in a war of attrition?

5) Despair. Perhaps Israel is weakening. Sharon's government, even as it prepared its Gaza bombshell, agreed to a prisoner swap with Hezbollah, an Islamist paramilitary and terrorist group, on ridiculously uneven terms (400 Hezbollah prisoners for one live Israeli and three dead ones). Then came the Gaza announcement, which Hamas gleefully touted as a victory. Is Israel losing its will to fight?

That would be alarming news. Israel is a critical front in the war on terror, and the collapse of that front would inspirit and embolden suicide bombers from Baghdad to Bali. But, in fact, no such collapse is apparent. Three grisly years have taught Israelis that their society can withstand suicide bombers' battering; the bombings are horrific, but not an existential threat to the state. Israelis are suffering, but not as much as Palestinians are; in that tragic sense, Israel is winning the war of attrition. It may indeed be this realization that frees Israelis to contemplate the prisoner swap and the Gaza pullout.

Israelis, in other words, are not so much despairing as preparing for a long standoff. Which leads to a sixth possible Sharon aim -- the single most plausible:

6) Digging in. Sharon is a general, and when a general decides he is in for a long siege, he consolidates his lines. A long siege is what Israel must now prepare for, even while hoping for a breakthrough.

Israelis, the White House, and more or less all people with eyes in their heads now believe that, as Makovsky puts it, "So long as Yasir Arafat remains leader of the Palestinians, there is no hope for peace and no hope of partnership." The resignation, in September, of moderate Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas established that the vampiric Arafat retains his stranglehold on the Palestinian power structure. So now the focus shifts to waiting out Arafat and, if necessary, waiting out the chaos -- or, more accurately, the even greater chaos -- that may follow him.

The Jewish settlements in Gaza do nothing for Israel's security. To the contrary, they are expensive to defend and they draw the Israeli army into conflict with the Palestinian population, as Sharon well knows. "He calculates that taking care of 7,500 people in a very populated Palestinian place is an untenable proposition in the long term, militarily, strategically, economically," says Yossi Shain, the head of Tel Aviv University's government department.

By getting out of Gaza, Sharon can firm up his lines and redeploy his resources. Abandoning some vulnerable West Bank settlements serves the same purpose. So does erecting the security barrier, which makes Israeli targets harder to bomb. Moreover, the barrier sits east of the Green Line, which, from Sharon's point of view, means that Israel retains land with which to bargain in negotiations with an eventual Palestinian partner.

More-defensible boundaries cannot exclude bombers entirely. Nor can they stop mortar shells and rockets. The Israeli army would continue to strike into Palestinian territory in both retaliation and pre-emption. But the frequency and difficulty of such incursions might be reduced. Israel might be less vulnerable, less stretched -- and thus better able to hunker down.

For how long? "For a long time," Shain says. "Is that a fun kind of existence? No. Can it be a durable condition? Yes. Can it minimize a lot of the terror? Yes. Does it get to the point where exhaustion [of Palestinian militants] will eventually take place? Yes."

From an American standpoint, the Gaza plan brings both opportunity and risk: opportunity for renewed diplomacy, sparked by Israel's willingness to yield land; risk that Israel's departure might leave Gaza in the hands of Hamas, creating a new Islamist terror state in the world's most combustible region.

Above all, however, the plan suggests the fecklessness of speaking, as many Americans still do, of a Middle East peace process. There is no peace process. Peace efforts, yes; but, as Shain says, "A peace deal with a central authority that can command all the forces among the Palestinians is not attainable and is not likely to be established soon." But there is no war process, either. So Israelis are digging in for a long wait. Americans may have to do the same.



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (30684)2/21/2004 9:47:59 AM
From: epicure  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793840
 
I didn't want you to miss this article Nadine:

Al Qaeda Rebuffs Iraqi Terror Group, U.S. Officials Say
By DOUGLAS JEHL

Published: February 21, 2004

ASHINGTON, Feb. 20 — The most active terrorist network inside Iraq appears to be operating mostly apart from Al Qaeda, senior American officials say.

Most significantly, the officials said, American intelligence had picked up signs that Qaeda members outside Iraq had refused a request from the group, Ansar al-Islam, for help in attacking Shiite Muslims in Iraq.

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The request was made by Ansar's leader, a Jordanian, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and intercepted by the United States last month. The apparent refusal is being described by some American intelligence analysts as an indication of a significant divide between the groups.

Since before the American invasion, Bush administration officials have portrayed Al Qaeda and Ansar as close associates and used the links as part of their justification for war against Saddam Hussein's government.

The officials declined this week to say how American intelligence agencies had learned that members of Al Qaeda had rebuffed Mr. Zarqawi's proposal. One of his top lieutenants, Hassan Ghul, has been in American custody for several weeks.

In an interview today, one official cautioned that it would be a mistake to see the two groups as having diverged, and that it was too soon to say whether Al Qaeda might support Mr. Zarqawi. This official described the fact that Mr. Zarqawi had appealed for help as a sign of "emerging links" between the two groups.

"Maybe someone did say no, but that doesn't mean they'll say no tomorrow," the official said.

But, officials said, there are growing indications that the two groups are distinct and independent, and are embracing different tactics and agendas.

A recent report by the State Department's intelligence branch emphasizes those differences, according to American officials who have read the classified document.

"Even among Sunni Muslim extremists and committed terrorists, including Zarqawi and Al Qaeda, there can be extreme discrepancies about strategy and tactics," one senior official said. "This is not a world of homogeneous bad guys."

Even if Mr. Zarqawi and Ansar are not working closely with Al Qaeda, they appear to be getting logistical support from outside Iraq, the American officials said.

A recent report by one intelligence agency shows lines of support, including supplies, money and recruiting, that extend to Mr. Zarqawi's group from neighboring countries, including Iran, Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

Mr. Zarqawi himself has traveled in and out of Iraq from Iran, where he took refuge after the American invasion last March, and from Syria, two military officials said.

In public reports and private statements, American intelligence officials have been careful to portray Mr. Zarqawi as an associate of Al Qaeda rather than as a member.

But before the American invasion, Bush administration officials portrayed Mr. Zarqawi's presence in Iraq, which they said required the support of Mr. Hussein's government, as their best evidence of links between Iraq and Al Qaeda.

"Iraq today harbors a deadly terrorist network headed by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, an associate and collaborator of Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda lieutenants," Secretary of State Colin L. Powell told the United Nations Security Council last February.

American intelligence officials continue to describe Ansar, which has many foreign members, as the most dangerous terrorist network operating in Iraq.

By contrast, the evidence since the war began of operations inside Iraq by Al Qaeda has been limited and generally inconclusive, American officials say. American intelligence officers believe Qaeda leaders to be in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The intercepted letter from Mr. Zarqawi to Al Qaeda leaders was made public last week by American officials after its contents were first reported by The New York Times.

In a version translated into English by American military officials, Mr. Zarqawi appears to anticipate that his idea of attacking Shiite Muslims might stir opposition from Al Qaeda, which has generally avoided direct strikes on fellow Muslims. The tactic is intended to ignite sectarian clashes inside Iraq and, ultimately, indirectly enlist more Iraqi Sunnis in a campaign aimed at ousting American forces.

"Some people will say that this will be a reckless and irresponsible action that will bring the Islamic nation to a battle for which the Islamic nation is unprepared," the letter said. "Souls will perish and blood will be spilled. This is, however, exactly what we want."