Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Baxter who wrote (21554)	2/22/2004 8:34:35 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Brian, Thanks for the thoughtful questions. I have taken the trouble to provide a link to part of my website in which I have placed the chart to which I refer. So please take a look at it first: geocities.com <"It could go as high as 6.0 also but seems to be reversing from the fall runup"> That is the breakout potential price level based on the consolidation currently underway. It is not clear yet whether that consolidation will result in a breakout or breakdown. <Fall reversal started on 10/31 and was complete on 12/10. This current reversal is from the 01/02/04 runup which of course ended on 1/20.> Actually, according to p&f chart theory, the fall reversal started in September, not October. And according to the same theory, it ended in January, not December... what you see as a 1/2 runup is really an extension of the fall runup... that is, according to p&f theory. <The bounce on Friday came after spending 45 minutes at the 50 day EMA. I see no 3.90 "support" levels on the charts in mid January, perhaps you could elucidate.> I don't know whether I can elucidate, but the p&f chart clearly shows the 3.9 level as support during this consolidation period. <In the last six months LU has dwelled or bounced of (sic) it's 50 day EMA. The SMA is irrelevant. We agree on the $5.00, that's easy to see as it's the 52 week high mark. I'm not sure where the "$5.75" figure comes from.> It comes from the breakout objective... $5.88. I rounded to 5.75. <Saying that it could go "5.75 or higher" (or maybe "6.0" as stated first) "eventually" or "under 2 eventually" is really saying what? That if the stock goes up it goes up, and if it goes down it goes down?> Well I have learned to trust Mr. Market more than my own insticts... so when we have a consolidation period (you may not have realized that is what was happening according to P&F theory) I am not willing to predict which way the break will come. Since I have addressed the high figure(s) already, the low figure comes from the reversal prior to the September start of the move up. An intermediate support level in the 2.3-2.5 area comes from the green trend line shown should the downleg of the current consolidation continue. So the point is: if the 3.9 level or there-abouts does not hold, you may want to consider getting out for the time being. And if we do break the 5.0 level top, go long, if you are not already long. But these are my opinions based on p&f theory... you are going to do whatever works good for you!. Thanks again, Bill