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Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (1086)	2/22/2004 10:21:03 AM
From: steve from ihub	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60914

Here's a long term gold chart. also gives a comparison to the dow, but they seem to move independent of each other for the most part. From a TA perspective i would think POG finds a way up to the 450-462 area( within 3 months) since i has taken broke thru the 405-412 peaks of past years. That said this move is getting pretty long in the tooth at three years of rising prices (see 85-88 & 93-96 periods) and that has usually led to a significant decline based on the limited data points on the chart. Would expect the pullback to go to the 300-350 area for POG in the ensuing few years after the peak which maybe in at 432 already for all i know, but imo we do go up and test the 450-462 level in the first half of 2004. I think the Japan terror alert induced spike in the US$ fades and it continues its grind down. my next targets are the 80-81 area. It may need to stay in the 85-88 range for another few weeks but i feel that its next test of the double bottom at 84.8 leads to a 1-1.5 month drop to the 80-81 level. That would be the most likely time for a POG rise to the 450-462 level and could mark a high in POG and a IT low in US$ as i would expect a multi month rally/grind up in the buck to ensue from that area. The real wildcards out there are the liberal printing presses of the US govt and inflation. I think both could lead to a continuation of the rally that is now three years old, but as a short term trader i really only care about the next few days. I just like to formulate a longer term map for where things are headed. stockcharts.com