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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (8444)	2/22/2004 3:52:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

That looks pretty ugly stockcharts.com[w,a]daclniay[pc200!c50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G If the 50MA breaks it should fall to the 200MA at some point IMO Chart support is at 30 and below that the 200MA at 26 and support at 25. If action plays out like that, we would then expect a bounce off 25 or the 200MA back up to the 50MA for failure. If it fails on a retest of the 50 I would expect the 200MA to not hold oon the way back down and for it to fall to support at 20 or even 15 then a test back yp to the 200 that fails. How's that for a scenario here goes fall to 30 bounce to 50MA at 33 fall to 25-26 Bounce to resistance at 30 or so (perhaps it will be the 50MA) Fall to 20 Bounce to 200MA at 25 Fall to 15

To: russwinter who wrote (8444)	2/22/2004 3:59:54 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

June 30's for 2.70 do not seem to be a bad play if you think it plays out like I suggested. At least you would not be subjected to squeezes. June 40's if you want to lessen time premium but limit squeeze risk at the same time. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (8444)	2/22/2004 4:21:36 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

LEND chart looks a lot like NCEN which is another piece of carp that can be shorted here imo. So many in the home finance and homebuilding area look like sitting ducks. May join you on LEND stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G M

To: russwinter who wrote (8444)	2/22/2004 5:58:07 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

Russwinter, I have been salivating over this group for a long time but have never done enough DD to give anyone an educated opinion. Unfortunately, I am going to be travelling for most of March. Hopefully, the sky is not going to fall while I am gone. Do you know how their ABS are structured and how much are they on the hook for, the entire amount? Are they obliged to take back anything that defaults? How much cash and credit do they have to fund new loans? Did they say how much of their portfolio are in California?