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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (13483)	2/22/2004 11:17:57 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95656

I'm sorry G but if you are now making a case that we are at the same stage of the semi cycle that we saw in the first quarter of 2000 - I have to question your reasoning? I'm not blindly bullish and I agree with some of the caution stated by you, Don and RtS. There are reasons not to be blindly bullish. However, to turn blindly bearish and to start claiming that the sky is going to fall, at this point in time, just doesn't make any sense to me! I think the doom and gloom being expressed on this thread is excessive and here's why: Look at the SOX chart as though it is in a consolidation phase. We have basically been in a hundred point range since the beginning of October of 2003 - from 460 to 560. This range has come AFTER a 200 (low end of the range) to 300 point move up (the high end of the range). This index is coming off of the extreme low caused by the build up to the Iraqi war and the doom and gloom that was associated with the pre-war preparations. This move doubled the value of the SOX!! It only makes sense that its going to take some time to consolidate and digest this huge move. We could go sideways for another month or 2 and the only thing that will change during this period is the underlying fundamental valuations of the companies. The underlying fundamentals are improving and, except for the view of a few analysts and some doomsayers, the improvements appear to be just getting started. I believe the run we had back in 2003 has clouded a lot of the judgement of the thread's participants. Seeing new high after new high, month after month was thrilling. That has changed in 2004 and, in reality, only for the past few weeks since the middle of January. I will be the first to come back here and eat my words if we drop another 15% on the SOX--if the index finds it's way back into the low 400s--without something coming out of left field that completely spooks the market. I don't think I'll have to worry about this at all and that the negativity being seen here is just a bit too much paranoia. I guess my view is: So what if the SOX goes down another 30 or 40 points before we reach the next earnings release cycle?