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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (46581)	2/23/2004 5:22:43 PM
From: Dr. Voodoo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Pezz, Today's report. Closed out my qqq puts today for a tidy sum. Lost a chunk of that sum chasing fake buy signals all day. Bot a tiny microscopic position of calls at the close for a short pop. I seem to be short of matchsticks to burn my money with. Overall, I'm staying flat, will know more as this week unfolds. Looking to sell some Apr/May GSS puts, tommorow. Voodoo

To: pezz who wrote (46581)	2/23/2004 6:48:39 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Last Night's Report: I unloaded my Canyon Resources (CAU) at USD 4.90/shr, bought here Message 19522118 <<November 20th, 2003>> at USD 3.61/shr, thus netting 36% undeserved gain over so many days. The fact that we are able to do what we do makes me nervous, because I think I chanced upon the script in this book "Fiat Money Inflation in France" achamchen.com amongst musty archives and dusty books that Greensputin had not bothered with ;0) It chronicles a script of an era long ago that was after the age of achamchen.com and before the era of 1929. E-book download for “Fiat Money Inflation in France” can be found here: knowledgerush.com An excerpt on Page 29 states ... "Even worse than this was the breaking down of the morals of the country at large, resulting from the sudden building up of ostentatious wealth in a few large cities, and from the gambling, speculative spirit spreading from these to the small towns and rural districts. From this was developed an even more disgraceful result,--the decay of a true sense of national good faith. The patriotism which the fear of the absolute monarchy, the machinations of the court party, the menaces of the army and the threats of all monarchical Europe had been unable to shake was gradually disintegrated by this same speculative, stock-jobbing habit fostered by the superabundant currency. At the outset, in the discussions preliminary to the first issue of paper money, Mirabeau and others who had favored it had insisted that patriotism as well as an enlightened self-interest, would lead the people to keep up the value of paper money. The very opposite of this was now revealed, for there appeared, as another outgrowth of this disease, what has always been seen under similar circumstances. It is a result of previous, and a cause of future evils. This outgrowth was a vast debtor class in the nation, directly interested in the depreciation of the currency in which they were to pay their debts. The nucleus of this class was formed by those who had purchased the church lands from the government. Only small payments down had been required and the remainder was to be paid in deferred installments: an indebtedness of a multitude of people had thus been created to the amount of hundreds of millions. This body of debtors soon saw, of course, that their interest was to depreciate the currency in which their debts were to be paid; and these were speedily joined by a far more influential class;--by that class whose speculative tendencies had been stimulated by the abundance of paper money, and who had gone largely into debt, looking for a rise in nominal values. Soon demagogues [EDIT by Jay: achamchen.com ] of the viler sort in the political clubs began to pander to it; a little later important persons in this debtor class were to be found intriguing in the Assembly--first in its seats and later in more conspicuous places of public trust. Before long, the debtor class became a powerful body extending through all ranks of society. From the stock-gambler who sat in the Assembly to the small land speculator in the rural districts; from the sleek inventor of _canards_ on the Paris Exchange to the lying stock-jobber in the market town, all pressed vigorously for new issues of paper; all were apparently able to demonstrate to the people that in new issues of paper lay the only chance for national prosperity." We may be marching down a road well traveled, trying out an experiment precisely documented, and playing out a drama as scripted. J

To: pezz who wrote (46581)	2/24/2004 5:48:46 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today's Report: I am in Guangzhou, about to investigate something I know nothing about, hanging out by lonesome, and feeling adventurous. <<..."The hell wit the cheese I just want outa the trap!">> It certainly is murderous out there. I am very afraid, and so we must survive so that we can fight another day ;0) I, as you, have faith in our respective scripts, but when the theater catches fires, it is perhaps best to put down the scripts and run, fast, silent, into the darkness, away from the screaming. I continued selling the unmentionable stock today, and I am very close to getting clear away from the beast :0) Equity is now 15.6% of G.Asset. Currency is grinding against currency, and I do not wish to be ground up. I did some major heavy airlifting of AUD, CAD, and EUR troops to, of all fiat, USD! Cash is now 41.3% of G.Asset (AUD @ 17.9%, GBP @ 2.6%, CAD @ 4.3%, EUR @ 2.7%, HKD @ 1.3%, YEN @ 4.4%, and USD @ 8.1%). This is a very different allocation then when I woke up this morning (USD was @ -0.1% of G.Asset). The move involves no particular risk in the short run since my base currency is HKD/USD, and should the USD bounce up for a last gasp, I am willing to send it back into the currency scrimmage. Why do I get the feeling that this 2004 will not be easy ;0/ Yes, it may be time to run again, as we had before … Message 15061631 <<December 20th, 2000 … Survival strategy #1: run faster than the next guy, away from danger; and if you must panic, panic first. Kiss goodbye to the first 50% drop, as there is always another 50% to go yet. … US assets, like any other assets, is just another trade, and as such, tradable, to be bought as well as sold. … I am looking for that contra-cycle trade and having a hard time, really wanting to know what the great Soros is doing with his stash. Even as I am aware of the enormous overhang of Central Bank and private hoard of gold that is out there, I gravitate towards it, adding ever so little with each passing month. One thing can be said of gold – there is always liquidity for it. In the meantime am sinking under the weight of heavily appreciated platinum and are concerned about the declining auto sales and the increased mining output. Not a lot of places to run to when the entire arena becomes a frenzied killing place>> ... once on the high ground, hidden in the foliage, can then think about taking a look back towards the noise, through the scope of the rifle ;0) Chugs, Jay P.S. It wasn't so long ago, on another crimson night ... Message 16037818 <<July 6th, 2001 It is mid-night here and I am up still, looking through the sniper scope, in silence. Chugs, Jay>> Message 16037875 <<July 6th, 2001 Crimson tsunami. Commotion. People screaming for an emergency FED cut. Bureaucrats and gurus saying all is well, and that the low was in first half. More screaming. The killer hogs are about to be released into the crowd. I close my eyes. >> Message 16037941 <<July 6th, 2001 No use for emergency cuts. Regular cuts will do as well; because the market has already discounted a zero percent policy in the planet's largest creditor country, and thus implicitly the market has already discounted at least another 250 basis points of cuts in the largest debtor country. The market has not yet discounted the collapse of the principal embedded in the few mega shares (GE, FNM, C), the debt market and the dollar.>>