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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4955)2/23/2004 3:08:05 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Respond to of 5867
 
It is all about "buzz".

Earlier, the "buzz" was that AMAT was in trouble and LRCX was "taking share." After the AMAT conference call, the "buzz" is that AMAT's new products are doing very well in etch and it is "taking share."

This has been going on for 20 odd years. LRCX has always held its own in etch against AMAT. I held LRCX from '96 to 2000 and it was my single most profitable stock in terms of total dolar profit during that time. I didn't buy this time because I am getting fainter of heart as I grow older and I didn't want to chance that things might be different this time and LRCX would not hold up against AMAT. I don't know what to say in response to your question. I feel more comfortable holding AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS, but, if LRCX holds its own this time, it could have the biggest upside.



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4955)2/23/2004 3:22:29 PM
From: Jong Hyun Yoo  Respond to of 5867
 
While I have no idea what LRCX will trade in the near term (Yes, it could drop more), I am still standing by my belief that LRCX will be much higher from what it is trading today.

These days I am buying back my shares that I have sold sometime ago and intend to add more shares on weakness.

In order for me to see that equipment stocks have peaked, I would have to see more supply capacity and more broad semiconductor upturn. This means accelerating growth for memory makers, logic makers, and specialty chipmakers, ect. Dram memory business is still tough. Capacity buys at the logic manufacturers are not quite there yet although it seems to be looming soon. Only selective foudary companies in China, Taiwan, Korea, and japan is going with the purchase of the equipments.

With corporate infacstructure investment still lacking, I have a hard time accepting claim that equipment business is peaking. With spending so depressed in the past, we have seen some nice percentage growth in order activity for these companies, but, in terms of actual revenue number, we are still quite below the level that I am expecting at the peak.



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4955)2/23/2004 3:39:10 PM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5867
 
One reason LRCX has been so profitable for me is its volatility. I think it has a smaller following so when "traders" decided to get in or out, the swings are magnified. I've done well with it, but I'm starting to feel I'll age too quickly if I keep at it for too many years.

I don't think fundamentals matter much when stocks are trading as a group... I think many stocks are going down a great deal now only because they've had great gains and people dump to protect them, especially all the retail investors who've learned to "use stops." Myself, I think stops just prevent profits as the traders run them up and down to take these folks out.

Kirk