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Gold/Mining/Energy : Athlone Minerals Ltd. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ggamer who wrote (9)2/23/2004 6:04:40 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 30
 
real big shakeout with USDollar, JYen, and some with gold
this seems to me to be the middle innings of the annual February selloff
we get them in Feb and August (sometimes mid-July)

the dollar index DXY=85 has provided the basis for a double bottom serious bounce
this was expected last month
many (incorrectly, I believe) expect the USDollar to find its balance and equilibrium here
I do not
for the US$ to use DXY=85 as a LT foundation, we need to see remedy to the following:

- trade gap with Asia
- job and wage growth
- progress on federal budget balance

I believe we get none of these in 2004
instead, I expect we get trade war with China
followed by their retaliation in the USTrez arena
which causes havoc with LT rates

/ jim



To: ggamer who wrote (9)2/23/2004 6:04:40 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 30
 
real big shakeout with USDollar, JYen, and some with gold
this seems to me to be the middle innings of the annual February selloff
we get them in Feb and August (sometimes mid-July)

of course, huge oppty with both ATH and CDU
I expect each of them to approach C$10 by year end
each has monstrous fundamentals building up

the dollar index DXY=85 has provided the basis for a double bottom serious bounce
this was expected last month
many (incorrectly, I believe) expect the USDollar to find its balance and equilibrium here
I do not
for the US$ to use DXY=85 as a LT foundation, we need to see remedy to the following:

- huge trade gap with Asia
- nonexistent job and wage growth
- federal budget deficit

I believe we get none of these in 2004
instead, I expect we get trade war with China
followed by their retaliation in the USTrez arena
which causes havoc with LT rates, and accelerates the US$ Decline

/ jim