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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (540)	2/24/2004 11:58:15 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Darfot: Because I Too Believe We Are Operating within a Deflationary Paradigm, I took the position for a long time that once that paradigm exerted itself more forcefully--we would then proceed directly to a massacre in the commodities markets: gold, metals, oil, the softs, etc. Like you, I saw this accompanied by a resurgence in the strength of the USD, as the commodity currencies got thrashed, and the global market place sensed the USA would have to resolve its debt problem through massive liquidation, write-offs, bankruptcies, etc. While I still think we could get "there" eventually, I am no longer convinced there is a super-highway between the USA rolling back into a Recession--and the anti-Dollar trades getting thrashed. Why? Well, to begin with--if this economy rolls back towards recession again (which I take to be the first step towards a Deflationary Panic) then Washington is going to re-load the shotgun, along with Japan and China. This is why my basic, operational view is that we will experience inflation panics on the way to the dark deflation. The US Dollar is going to have to go much, much lower and gold and the metals are going to go much, much higher--before the boomerang of death finally arrives with its predilection to kill every asset class. But don't mistake me: I am not one of those nuts who thinks "No matter what happens its good for gold." I just take the view there there are some big, rolling waves to ride before this plays out in a Depression. BTW, I have felt for one month now that the US Economy is headed back into recession.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (540)	2/24/2004 12:10:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

New Bankruptcy laws Note: IMO this is akin to the old "company store" policies. Class warfare at it worst. Credit is thrown at people, 14 credit cards offered, 0% down loans and god knows what else and the lenders want NO responsibility for their actions. This is really disgusting IMO ========================================================== For those not familiar with the new terms for Bankruptcy, which will likely soon be passed into law. personal-bankruptcy-chapters-7-13-filing-laws.com Under proposed new bankruptcy laws, chapter 7 is prohibited for any individual earning more than $100 per month disposable income (determined by the IRS means test) if debts owed total less than $24,000. Under proposed new bankruptcy laws, chapter 7 is prohibited for any individual earning more than $166 per month disposable income (determined by the IRS means test) if debts owed total $24,000 or more. Current laws allow employed debtors to file chapter 7 without income restrictions. Under proposed new bankruptcy laws, if the value of collateral is less than debt owed, debtors must pay the higher amount to retain property. Current laws allow debtors to choose the lower amount - "cram-down" to actual collateral value - under Chapter 13. Under proposed new bankruptcy laws, all Chapter 7 debtors presumptively file in "bad faith," with the burden placed upon debtors to disprove presumptions in accordance with the Federal Rules of Evidence. This amendment effectively creates a rebuttable presumption of "guilt until proved innocent" with criminal punishment available in some circumstances. Under proposed new bankruptcy laws for chapter 13, debtors shall live under court supervision with all disposable income above the IRS means test applied to the full payment of all debts for a period of 5 years, or until paid in full. Under proposed new bankruptcy laws, penalties are mandatory against all debtors who assert facts, pleadings or requests without "substantial justification". Innocent errors, oversights or omissions are not excluded. This zero-tolerance provision does not apply to creditors. Under proposed new bankruptcy laws, mandatory penalties are required against all debtors' attorneys who assert facts, pleadings or requests without "substantial justification." Innocent errors, oversights or omissions are not excluded. This zero-tolerance provision does not apply to creditors' attorneys. Under proposed new bankruptcy laws, any creditor may allege misconduct or request dismissal at anytime. Dismissal then becomes mandatory, without judicial discretion, unless a debtor proves compliance with all legal requirements for bankruptcy protection. The debtor is solely responsible for attorney fees when proving compliance before the court. Under proposed new bankruptcy laws, chapter 13 debtors shall be restricted to monthly living allowances mandated by the IRS, regardless of individual circumstance, upon the same quasi-criminal standard used when prosecuting and collecting unpaid taxes (the "means test" under IRS "National Standards and Local Standards, Internal Revenue Service"). Under current laws, a debtor's financial means is determined on a case by case basis.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (540)	2/24/2004 12:14:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

the overcrowded anti-USD plays are so screwed on this triple top--when the bottom falls out of US economy and we have a full-blown recession, worldwide commodity demand will plummet and all currencies will plunge vs USD. $300 gold here we come. Prechter may even be right about $200 bullion. all imo, ha ha ha Do you believe that last paragraph? Sometimes I can not detect sarcasm Mish

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (540)	2/24/2004 2:53:21 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Misc posts from Heinz Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 13:26 trotsky (@renminbi/yuan) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved China has lost over 30 million manufacturing jobs over the past 10 years...i fear it is not going to agree with Mr. Snow that 'currency flexibility' is in its interest. note btw. that everybody was mightily relieved during the Asian crisis of '97-'98 that China, alone among all Asian nations, held the line and did NOT devalue. thus, trying to enforce 'flexibility' NOW that Asian currencies are generally looking strong, might have unintended consequences down the road. i.e. when the next currency crisis hits, China might then well say, 'sorry, but you know how it is better for all concerned if we're flexible...' Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:56 trotsky (Wooly, 10:16) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Anybody figure out YET....COMPETITIVE DEVALUTATION means... INFLATION in all goods" not so - competitive devaluations are actually a hallmark of deflationary eras. the last global scramble to enact 'beggar thy neighbor' currency policies was in the deflationary 1930's. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:53 trotsky (anecdotal sentiment data) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i don't have a 'scientific' data set to 'prove' this, but from a survey of anecdotal sentiment, it seems like EVERYBODY is suddenly expecting a big dollar rally. true, the market was extremely short going into this recent bounce - but i note again that currency trends are the most INERT trends known to speculating man. i.e., they tend to produce only very small counter-trend moves in corrections, and the trends tend to stay very strong in whatever direction they're going. i'm not sure what today's denouement will do to this sudden bout of dollar bullishness, but in all likelihood the sentiment change was a tad premature. note btw. that the dollar's fundamentals have continued to deteriorate - no let-up yet in the current account debacle for instance, and historically, the dollar tends to fall UNTIL it is back in balance. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:31 trotsky (consumer 'confidence') ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved is the consumer recession beginning? or has it already begun? nasty surprise in store for the polyannas...all that monetary pumping will have been for naught... Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:25 trotsky (bond market) ID#377387: massive short squeeze imminent? we're threatening very important resistance levels... Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:22 trotsky (more...) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "In fact, Greenspan dismissed the record breaking bankruptcies, saying instead that falling interest rates have decreased consumer debt burdens, while the rise in house and stock prices have provided a cushion to savings short consumers. " this is beyond belief - that's supposed to be a sober 'analysis'?? i.e., the only reason the consumer isn't carried out feet first just YET, is because we've temporarily stoked/revived a few asset bubbles?? and thus, we 'should not worry' about records in bankruptcies and mortgage delinquencies? i'm surprised the assembled pork-shovelers weren't left speechless at that point.. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:18 trotsky (essentially) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Greenspan is saying that those 'excellent risk managers' at Fannie are going to f*ck up big time one day, and he wants YOU to pay up when that happens ( i.e., the US tax payer ) . iow, he's openly coming out with what we should know ever since the Fed was founded: the banksters want to privatize only their profits - their risk must of course be socialized. iow, they're not going to PAY YOU for providing the ultimate insurance. you're the only one that ends up paying. sucker. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:14 trotsky (Greenspan) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved he basically admitted today that a debt crisis will be unavoidable at some point in the future - he's urging Congress to make the government's backing of GSE debt 'official' to remove all doubt as to the coming mother of all bail-outs when it becomes 'necessary'. oh yes, they are 'excellent risk managers', but dontcha know, 'it's not all under their control' - you can say that again. Date: Tue Feb 24 2004 11:02 trotsky (frustrated, 8:59) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "LONDON, Feb 24 ( Reuters ) - Most investors at a bond conference in London on Tuesday said they expected euro zone and U.S. interest rates to be higher in 12 months' time. " that's what 'most investors' are expecting since when exactly? of course what most are expecting never tends to happen - more confirmation that interest rates will continue to fall.