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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (559)2/24/2004 7:48:11 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
The state of US manufacturing
From Jhawker on my board on the FOOL
Here goes:
============================================================
When I travel, I don't always have time to keep up on all of the postings on this board. I have come to Chicago for the week to visit some customers and attend the National Manufacturing Week conference. Today I went to the McCormick Place to attend the exhibits. I was shocked, dismayed, and stunned by what I saw, or better, by what I didn't see.

I first attended this annual show about 7 years ago. I had already attended the ChemShow at the Javits in NYC by then, and was impressed that this show was even larger than the ChemShow. At that time, the Manufacturing Week (which includes Design Engineering, Plant /Facilities Management, Automation, basically most of the segments that affect manufacturing) exhibits filled both the South and North halls, and the North hall overflow annex. These are huge exhibit halls. If you haven't been there, you can go to the McCormick Place website ( www.mccormickplace.com ) to see how big it is. Now, I had noticed over the last few years, that the show was getting a little smaller. For the last 4 years, the overflow annex hasn't been used. And over the last couple of years, they have been blocking off some of each hall (maybe 20%) that was not being utilized. But, what I saw this year still stunned me.

The North hall was completely empty. At first I thought that maybe they had moved all of the CAD/CAM participants somewhere else. But no, the show has gotten so small that everything can fit into one hall; actually, less than one hall. They had still blocked off 15-20% of the South hall due to lack of participants. Also, all of the registration, the show bookstore, the display services, all of these other non-display floor space absorbers were included in the South hall, when they used to be spread between the halls and the external mezzanine. If you haven't attended this show before, perhaps this doesn't mean much to you. It is amazing how much this has changed in just the last two years.

I know that the U.S. manufacturing industry is struggling. I've seen numbers and heard stories. I work in the manufacturing industry. Luckily, we are not a commodity producer(i.e. you won't find our products at Wal-Mart), but rather a high-end or niche manufacturer. So, although it has been difficult, we have been able to sustain a small amount of growth over the past few years. But, I was simply stunned by how small the Manufacturing Week show had become. It truly amazed me.

Two more interesting thing that I saw:

1. Right by the registration area, the first booth that you will see is eBay. Why eBay at a manufacturer's conference, you might ask. I visited with their representative for awhile. They were there to show attendees how easy it was to sell excess capital equipment, inventory, or their whole business on eBay. Can't survive, well they will be happy to help you sell off everything. Apparently business is booming at eBay in this market segment, and they have set up dedicated web addresses and pages for this.

2. As I wandered the aisles of the show, I would look at which exhibitors were bored to death (no business), which ones had some visitors, and which ones had the teasers (games, models, presentations, or anything to catch the eye/attention) to try to increase their booth traffic. But, the booth that I saw with the heaviest traffic didn't have teasers. Some guy had rented a booth just to sell digital cameras/camcorders. Nothing to do with manufacturing, strictly retail. And these puppies were selling like hotcakes. There was always a crowd, and the credit card reader stayed warm. I would be surprised if any manufacturing exhibitor comes away from this show happier, or more satisfied, than this guy.

I have never been more dissolusioned about the state of manufacturing in America than I am today. I was simply stunned. You better have something significantly innovative or different, or you better get into the service industry.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (559)2/24/2004 8:02:28 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Poll: Free trade loses backers
High-income Americans have lost much of their enthusiasm for free trade as they perceive their own jobs threatened by white-collar workers in China, India and other countries, according to data from a survey of views on trade. (Related item: Read the entire study)
The survey by the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes is one of the most comprehensive U.S. polls on trade issues. It found that support for free trade fell in most income groups from 1999 to 2004, but dropped most rapidly among high-income respondents — the very group that registered the strongest support for free trade in the past. "Free trade" means the removal of barriers such as tariffs that restrict international trade. (Related story: Income confers no immunity as jobs migrate)

The PIPA poll shows that among Americans making more than $100,000 a year, support for actively promoting more free trade collapsed from 57% to less than half that, 28%. There were smaller drops, averaging less than 7 percentage points, in income brackets below $70,000, where support for free trade was already weaker.

The same poll found the share of Americans making more than $100,000 who want the push toward free trade slowed down or stopped altogether nearly doubled from 17% to 33%.

Rising anxiety about free trade could intensify an already fierce political battle this election year.

In the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., has gained some ground on front-runner Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., by hitting Kerry's support for free-trade agreements that critics say have cost American jobs. The Democratic nominee is expected to use the trade issue against President Bush, whose administration has generally been supportive of free trade.

The PIPA 2004 poll was released last month, but breakdowns by income level were performed at the request of USA TODAY. The results are based on responses from more than 1,800 U.S. residents with a margin of error of +/ —— 2.3-4 percentage points.

The findings suggest that anxieties about free trade long held by lower-income Americans and blue-collar workers — who have been losing jobs to cheaper labor markets abroad — have spread up the income ladder.

The findings come as the U.S. job market remains sluggish and accounting, computer programming, radiology and other high-end service jobs are being lost to workers abroad.

"This is huge," says Steven Kull, director of the Maryland polling unit. "What's most dramatic is what's happened to support among those making more than $70,000 a year. ... These include those who've most avidly supported trade and globalization, who've taken the lead in pushing the free-trade agenda forward."

Kull said the PIPA poll shows most Americans remain supportive, or at least tolerant, of free trade, but with big caveats. "They're not saying, 'put on the brakes,' " he said. "But they are saying, 'Don't step on the gas. Don't rush. We need to make adjustments. We need more time to adapt to these changes.' "

usatoday.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (559)2/24/2004 8:21:56 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Monetary Policy in Deflation: The Liquidity Trap
federalreserve.gov



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (559)2/24/2004 8:22:27 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
QQQ out of the channel

stockcharts.com[g,a]dhclynay[dd][pb20!b50!f][ila12,26,9!lh14,3][j26288588,y]&listNum=5



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (559)2/24/2004 8:39:02 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
U.S. Halts French Processed Meat Imports

By ANGELA DOLAND, Associated Press Writer

PARIS - The United States is suspending imports of all French processed meat and poultry products, including cold cuts and delicacies like foie gras, because of food safety concerns, officials in both countries said Tuesday.

U.S. experts who inspected plants in France starting last month said they didn't conform with U.S. food safety requirements. Officials of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (news - web sites)'s Food Safety and Inspection Service found the sanitation systems failed to meet U.S. standards, said Steve Cohen, a department spokesman.

Cohen did not say what the problems were, only that officials believe the move is "vital to ensuring the continued protection and confidence of the public."

Before the plants can resume exports, France will have to show the USDA it has improved its food safety system and that it meets U.S. standards, Cohen said.

French officials present during the inspections found no problems, the French Agriculture Ministry said.

"France shares neither the observations of the American authorities nor the conclusions they felt should be taken," the ministry said in a statement.

The measure concerns only processed products, not ordinary cuts of beef, pork or poultry, Agriculture Ministry press officer Severin Naudet said.

Rillettes, a coarsely chopped pate in which fat is added, is another product that falls under the measure, he said. Such delicacies can sometimes harbor harmful bacteria and have occasionally been linked to outbreaks of listeria poisoning, which causes high fevers, severe headaches and nausea. It can be potentially fatal to people with weak immune systems.

Naudet also said he could not provide specifics on what the exact U.S. complaints were. Cohen said the U.S. inspectors did not do bacterial inspections during their visits.

Before the decision, only 11 companies in France had official clearance to export meat products to the United States. The inspections from Jan. 15 to Feb. 5 focused on those companies and on regional veterinary offices that oversee the sites.

Agriculture Minister Herve Gaymard has been in frequent contact with U.S. officials and hopes to find a way to resolve the problem "as soon as possible," the statement added. He is also working closely with David Byrne, the European Union (news - web sites)'s health and consumer affairs commissioner.

A high-level Agriculture Ministry delegation and French veterinary officials went to Washington on Monday to explain what France has done over the past several months to respond to the "specific requirements" of the U.S. system, the statement said. It did not give details.

The ministry said that U.S. authorities felt France does not conform with a U.S. meat safety program called the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point, or HACCP. The system requires bacterial inspections and a trail of documenting paperwork.

The bans would have only a minor impact on U.S. consumers, said John Roberts, president of the National Association for the Specialty Food Trade, based in New York City, which includes sellers of imported foods.

"Most of the fresh foie gras (Americans) have been consuming has probably been coming out of the New York Hudson Valley anyhow," Roberts said. "As to the cold cuts, I'm not recalling a lot of French cold cuts being part of my regular life here in the States."

story.news.yahoo.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (559)2/24/2004 8:41:10 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Feds call Minn. drug Web site 'unsafe'

WASHINGTON, Feb. 24 (UPI) -- Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty says federal criticism of his state's prescription drug Web site was positive because the government is not shutting it down.

The Food and Drug Administration Monday said MinnesotaRXconnect.com, a 3-week-old Internet site that helps state residents buy cheaper prescription refills from Canada, was "unsafe, unsound and ill-considered."

"Today's communication from the FDA is good news, because it is not a legal action designed to shut our state Web site down," Pawlenty said in a statement to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Wisconsin last week said it would expand its prescription drug Web site to allow purchases of lower cost medicines from Canadian pharmacies online. Michigan and North Dakota have expressed interest in linking to Minnesota's site.

Pawlenty and Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich hosted a public forum on prescription drugs at the National Governors Association winter meeting in Washington.

washingtontimes.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (559)2/24/2004 8:46:29 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 116555
 
Greenspan
Interest rate risk associated with fixed-rate mortgages, unless supported by substantial capital, however, can be of even greater concern than the credit risk. Interest rate volatility combined with the ability of homeowners to prepay their mortgages without penalty means that the cash flows associated with the holding of mortgage debt directly or through mortgage-backed securities are highly uncertain, even if the probability of default is low.

Mish comments
This is the KEY sentence:
Interest rate volatility combined with the ability of homeowners to prepay their mortgages without penalty means that the cash flows associated with the holding of mortgage debt directly or through mortgage-backed securities are highly uncertain, even if the probability of default is low.

This is a warning about prepayment!
Why would someone prepay?
Because rates are headed LOWER, not higher.
FNM thinks it has locked in long term returns and has hedged around that. Unfortunately someone pre-pays and that royally F's up FNM if their hedges are correct. Since FNM is one of the most leveraged players on the planet they are at great risk of prepay. In actuality, FNM is reversed hedged. FNM has bet rates go higher. They need to do this in case rates go up. If they do not then FNM would be content with what they get, except they are WRONGLY hedged AND the customer pays off the loan. oops! This scenario in fact cost FNM billions of $ thet they reported as a "one time charge" last summer.

Thus FNM has these risks
1) They are hedged the wrong way
2) they are not hedged enough
3) prepayments get them even if they are hedged the right way
4) leverage
5) defaults and bankruptcies

That is what Greenspan is bitching about IMO.
Mish



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (559)2/24/2004 8:49:26 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
On free trade, guilds, and protectionism
From Wayne on the FOOL
=========================================================
It was only a matter of time before Free Trade started chipping away at the modern-day "guilds".

Why do I say "guilds". Well, in ancient times a "guild" was established by tradesmen to limit access to the profession so that they could keep their prices up under the guise of some weird guarantee of "professional workmanship". Since these were the 'educated classes' with their paws on the levers of power, the old 'wink and a nod' from the politicos kept it going.

Well, look around.........

Lawyers get to decide how many lawyers there will be. Same with doctors, accountants, architects, radiologists, and on and on. Even nursing and teaching!

Why shoul a radiologist make $ 90k a year? Wouldn't society be better off with 3 of them making $ 30k each?

fwiw,
Wayne



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (559)2/24/2004 10:46:41 PM
From: Oak Tree  Respond to of 116555
 
Agreed. I made some money last year. As one of my old profs said to me years ago -- don't be greedy. I'm slowly selling at least half my stock portfolio between now and the november election. Even is Bush spends us into the next century the economy is going to fall. If no one has a good paying job who is going to buy stuff?