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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (589)	2/25/2004 12:59:10 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Currently (I think) the 30 year fixed rate is around 5 1/2%, so it is about 1 1/2% above the 10 year. Would a 30 year rate of 4 1/2% spark another round? The 30 yr is 4.90 as I type The 10 is is 4.03 I would guess that 4.50 would probably do it but the low was 4.15 We were below 4.5 for about 6 weeks Anyone that did not hit that window might be looking at the 4.50 area waiting. Massive refinancing might not occur until 4.25 or so. Unless we take out or challenge those absolute lows, refinancings will improve greatly but probably will not see that peak like we had before. Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (589)	2/25/2004 1:02:46 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Hmmm ... a bond rally would make the BOJ happy since they have been buying Treasuries. But wouldn't the dollar drop like a rock against the Euro? Wouldn't oil prices jump with the falling dollar, since OPEC is apparently marking to the Euro? Yes across the board. Except that Japan would not be happy with rising YEN which you did not mention. It would also be good for gold and silver most likely. Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (589)	2/25/2004 9:09:55 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Tanker Demand moneycentral.msn.com Global demand for oil will climb by 3.7% in 2004, according to the International Energy Agency's Feb. 11 report. The International Maritime Organization (IMO), an agency of the United Nations, has written new rules that accelerate the mandatory phase-out of single-hulled oil tankers and require stricter inspections of older tankers. Tanker demand will grow by at least 3% in 2004, estimates Jefferies & Co., the New York investment-banking firm. The demand could be more if the most recent International Energy Agency projections are correct. The addition of new ships minus the scrapping of old ships, however, will result in the global tanker fleet growing by less than 3% in 2004. In 2005, Jefferies estimates, global tanker demand will grow by 2.7% -- I believe that it will be closer to 4% -- and net global tanker supply (after new ship deliveries and after scrappings of old ships) will increase by 2.6%.