To: TheSlowLane who wrote (4913 ) 2/25/2004 12:27:09 PM From: dara Respond to of 313061 Thanks. I'll listen to the call tomorrow. I missed the news as I was wading through Marshall Auerback's latest article.prudentbear.com "And now that Tokyo appears to be playing ball with Washington, both seem to be locked into some mutual economic suicide pact (whilst the ECB stands on the sidelines, watching the whole scenario unfold with growing unease). Tokyo’s finances are beginning to resemble that of a Latin American country, with Washington rapidly catching up." "In the interim, the trans-Pacific trade imbalance has tipped further, resulting in the buildup of massive countervailing forces which will likely be unleashed later in the form of a further precipitous fall in the dollar. Furthermore, counting on the seemingly insatiable appetite of the American customer, the allocation of economic resources in the Japanese and other Asian economies appears to have been distorted to a larger extent than before." "By playing along like an American colony, Japan and the other Asian nations appear to be behaving like innocent merchants willing to sell on credit as much as their customers want. But at some point, either the creditors insist on proper payment for their large and growing I.O.U.’s, or the debtor simply declares, “No mas”, as Argentina has done, and the creditors are left with the prospect of huge write-downs. In such circumstances, credit will be harder to come by in the future, which bodes ominously for dollar assets." "At that point, the real consequences of this unhealthy symbiotic relationship will come home to roost. After all, when market commentators discuss the problems of the American twin deficits, what they really mean is that the sheer size of these deficits prevents any future short run policy stimulus-induced strength in US domestic demand from being sustainable over the medium to longer term. But if that is the case, logically it follows that one cannot be optimistic about the prospects for economies, like Japan, which remain dependent on exports to sustain growth, notably to the US. Which means less credit for the world’s largest debtor. How, then, does one resolve these awkward questions about exit strategies? Persisting in self-serving historical revisionism is clearly not an answer."