To: Chispas who wrote (631 ) 2/25/2004 1:59:11 PM From: mishedlo Respond to of 116555 Cdn Capital Spending - A Slow Turn Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist Canadian investment intentions for 2004 show some underlying improvement in the private sector, but are far from robust. The overall rise in capital spending this year is pegged at 3.1%, which is actually below last year's estimated 3.8% gain. However, the apparent cooling is entirely due to the housing sector, where new spending is expected to slip to 2.7% after an 11.2% burst last year. In addition, public sector investment is also projected to slow, albeit to a still-solid 7.2% rise from 7.7% last year. Private sector spending on plant and equipment is projected to nudge up 1.7% versus a 1.1% decline in 2003. While far from stellar, it should be stressed that a steep drop in machinery and equipment prices - reflecting the surge in the Canadian dollar - means that even a small rise in spending will translate into a solid increase in the volume of M&E investment. Spending by manufacturers is expected to remain stable this year, rising 3.9% after a similar 3.6% rise last year. Clearly, the loonie's surge has not hit profits enough to thwart capital spending plans at domestic factories. Some industries are planning to ramp up outlays after deep cuts last year, including transportation, finance, and information & cultural. On the flip side, retailers are looking to cut back on investment this year after a solid gain last year. Meantime, utilities and government will remain at the top of the heap, both projecting another year of hefty increases. On a regional basis, capital spending plans are spread across most of the country, led by a 10.5% rise in Newfoundland and Labrador. Only Saskatchewan expects a spending decline this year. The Bottom Line: Canadian private capital spending still appears to be turning the corner, although the upturn is far from impressive at this stage.bmonesbittburns.com