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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8660)	2/25/2004 6:39:50 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Of course Greenspan pulls another one of his infamous, "at some point I'd be concerned" remarks here. No, 45% ain't it? 50%? Naw. 55%? No, not yet. I suppose he'll let us know "after the fact"? The good news is that "the aggregate size of the market", just gets even bigger, thus cancelling out the prior excesses, etc, etc. It's amazing logic, because it ALWAYS pencils, no matter what. If only we could live life that way. The guy will be as cool as a cucumber when the global economy comes crashing down: Captain of the ship. The day's $26 bln 2-year auction saw a 30% increase in cover and pushing yields to 1.675%, their lowest levels since July. Indirect bidders, including foreign central banks, consumed over 45% of the auction, quelling some concerns that intervention will subside with the dollar's partial recovery. Greenspan acknowledged market's interest in the huge foreign holdings, noting that, although sizable, in light of the aggregate size of the markets, he won't worry until there comes "a number, at some point, that will disturb me."

To: mishedlo who wrote (8660)	2/25/2004 8:33:31 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Fed funds market now sees very low odds of even a 25 bps increase until August, 2004. trendmacro.com That's pretty optimistic considering we will be completely out of copper about April 29th, and nickel well before that. Let's see soybeans? Maybe about eleven bucks. Oil, who knows, $40 plus? Inflation rate will be in double digits by August,and we should be about three or four months into a monetary meltdown. The Feb PPI if it's ever announced should be market moving and so should the March CPI and PPI (if ever used again). The March 5 labor number is going to be a high reading IMO: W&S is 102,505 vs 100,520 for the month through today, that's up 2%, a marked improvement over anything that went on throughout 03.