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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (653)	2/25/2004 3:48:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

I am not playing treasuries but you can easily be correct. In fact I called for last summers low in yields to be tested, just not playing for it. Eurodollars much safer. They will rally if treasuries go higher and in fact they will rally if nothing happens. By nothing I mean no rate hike. There is no guarantee that treasuries will do that but there is an inplied relationship with eurodollars. Today was a good day for me. Euribors/Eurodollars in breakout mode. Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (653)	2/25/2004 3:55:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bankruptcy Reform--The Details of the Proposed Law and its Consequences: ### nader.org In the Public Interest The Bankruptcy System March 28, 2003 ### clnj.org Consumers League Urges "No" Vote on Bankruptcy Reform, H.R. 333 - S. 420 Conference Report In this time of economic downturn, the bill hurts disadvantaged Americans who have suffered loss of employment, (some N.J. Residents lost jobs from the terrorist attacks, and from the effects of the attacks) , or loss of health, or loss of spouse, the most common reasons for bankruptcy. ### cyberstation.net FEDERAL BANKRUPTCY DEBT RELIEF Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1994: House Report No. 103-835 (October 4,5,1994) " The legacy of runaway debt and rampant financial speculation in the 1980's is a massive increase in bankruptcy filings in the 1990's." "The uniform national bankruptcy system is designed to achieve two equally important objectives. #1 The first is to provide honest debtors who have fallen on hard times the opportunity for a fresh start in life, after they have made a good-faith attempt to pay what they can. This not only helps honest debtors from being relegated to a lifetime of destitution or the functional equivalent of financial indentured servitude from which they can never hope to recover, but also helps reinforce the incentives for healthy business entrepreneurship, which are the lifeblood of economic growth in a free market system. #2 The second objective of the bankruptcy system is to protect creditors in general by preventing an insolvent debtor from selectively paying off the claims of certain favored creditors at the expense of others. Because the essence of insolvency is that there is not enough money to pay all claims in full, there is an inevitable temptation among creditors to compete fiercely over the debtor's limited funds. The bankruptcy system is thus designed to enforce a distribution of the debtor's assets in an orderly manner in which claims of all creditors are considered fairly, in accordance with established principles rather than on the basis of the inside influence or economic leverage of a particular creditor. ### 216.239.39.104 The morally bankrupt Congress With its support of a new bankruptcy bill, Congress is once again doing the bidding of the financial industry. July 31, 2002 \| Thou hast taken usury and increase, and thou hast greedily gained of thy neighbor by extortion, and hast forgotten me, saith the Lord God. -- Ezekiel 22:12 ### en.wikipedia.org Debt bondage From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. ### baltimoresun.com Indentured in America Trapped in servitude far from their homes Lured by promises, Pacific Islanders come in search of education and employment, but instead find poverty, misery and threats. By Walter F. Roche Jr., Sun Staff; and Willoughby Mariano, Orlando Sentinel Originally published September 15, 2002

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (653)	2/25/2004 4:09:48 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Econ Numbers tomorrow 8:30 Q4 current account 8:30 weekly jobless claims 8:30 durable goods excl trans 8:30 durable goods 10:00 jan new home sales 6:30PM jan household spending 6:30PM jan unemployment 6:30PM jan CPI 6:30PM Jan industrial production

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (653)	2/25/2004 4:28:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Fed Gov: Market Must Brace for Rate Rise Federal Reserve Governor Susan Schmidt Bies said on Wednesday that at some point the official federal funds rate will rise, and financial market participants need to prepare for that day. "At some point interest rates will rise -- I am not predicting when, we are going to be patient -- and as you stretch for yield in your organizations you should encourage your managers to take a look at risk exposure," Bies told the Global Association of Risk Professionals Annual Convention. Bies also echoed Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites)'s Tuesday warning that the unchecked growth of giant mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - news) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - news), could pose risks to the U.S. financial system. "The real question we have got is do we really believe the U.S. government will bail them (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) out like we did with the S and L's (savings and loans associations) -- they are taking on more and more interest rate risk," Bies said in response to a question after her speech. story.news.yahoo.com =========================================================== Man this crap is really contradictory with Greenspan suggesting more customers take on 1) more debt 2) use variable rate mortgages Do these guys know what they are saying vs what others on the FED are saying? Clever wording prevented Greenspan from contradicting himself but this is a pure contradiction of what the others were saying. Of course they are "patient". Perhaps they are pointing out 3 years - who knows really? Perhaps this clown believes in the recovery. Perhaps they just want all these derrivatives unwound. God knows what they want really. If FNM takes this bait and does more hedging against rates going up, they can get screwed big time. Actually if you look at the headline vs what was REALLY said you just might see treasury bears jumping the gun yet again. headline: Fed Gov: Market Must Brace for Rate Rise Reality: ""At some point interest rates will rise -- I am not predicting when, we are going to be patient" At any rate.... Eurodollars up very nicely today Euribors and Short Sterling too Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (653)	2/25/2004 4:37:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Fannie Mae on Greenspan's speech Analysis and post by SuisseBear on the FOOL =========================================================== Fannie Mae Chief Executive Franklin Raines told lawmakers on Wednesday that limiting mortgage purchases by his company -- as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has proposed -- would raise mortgage rates and create new risks for the U.S. financial system. "Any arbitrary constraint on our portfolio would remove an important bid for mortgages from the market, which would lead to higher and more volatile mortgage rates for homeowners," SuisseBear: arbitrary constraint by the government = bad arbitrary free lunch by the government (implied backing) = good Raines said Greenspan's idea would have the effect of shifting from the government-sponsored enterprises to banks the risks associated with interest rate swings. So? One effect of a change of the kind the Fed chairman suggested would likely be that banks would make long-term fixed rate mortgages more expensive for home buyers, Raines said. SuisseBear: Clever move to make that point to the pols... OTOH, fewer subsidies may induce house prices to retrace the hike experienced when the government initially started supporting the GSEs - home affordability may not change all that much. Raines further said his company is well buffered against financial setbacks. "It is virtually impossible for a small mistake to fell Fannie Mae," Raines said. SuisseBear Comforting. Given their track record when it comes to medium to large size mistakes in their accounting, one can only cling on to the hope they are faring better with their risk modelling... story.news.yahoo.com