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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (8682)	2/25/2004 11:21:48 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

<why can"t you see that Greenspan does not care.> Yes, I now think he will be senile and clueless right up to Train Wreck Day and his retirement/golden watch banquet (guess that would be the end of May, slightly after TWD). I see the odds at 75% that you have won that portion of our debate here, although I think Easy will come up with one rate hike to show some balls (at least to his fans, certainly not me)on his way out. I will admit that as much as I despise the Fed, even I didn't think they would be this oblivious. But I'm now more convinced than ever that I'm going to win the inflation part of our debate at least through the Train Wreck Phase, so let me ask you a serious and sincere question. Just going with my scenario laid out as follows how do you think the bond and stock markets (not Greenspan, the markets: includes the BOJ and BOC) will react? 1. A Feb PPI of 0.8%, (when finally revealed), or do you think it gets doctored lower? I think it comes out clean BTW 2. A 230,000 job number in March 5, same in April. After that, different story, but you need to get through two months of good labor numbers first. 3. Another 1.0% import price increase in mid-March 4. $39 oil and $2.50 gasoline by Easter, $42 and $3.00 by Memorial Day 5. Another 0.6% CPI in March and 1.1% PPI in March 6. Stories of shortages, delayed deliveries and surcharges coming out of Asia (and here) starting almost immediately, and building up steadily leading to a complete shutdown of whole industries by the end of April. 7. An April PPI of 1.3% and a CPI of 0.8%. 8. A major crop problem somewhere, but most likely China, evident in May, or substitute a geopolitical event in energy and add that increment to my $42 oil scenario. In the US, a major addition of $20 billion a month in consumer spending towards subsistence items starting just about the time the last tax refund gets spent in April.